000
FXUS64 KMRX 171415
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER ARKANSAS...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. AREA RADARS REVEAL AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY...OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL UPDATE
THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MORNING PRECIP WORDING AND TO TWEAK TEMPS
A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   80  63  77  64  81 /  50  70  60  50  50
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     80  62  77  63  82 /  50  60  80  50  50
OAK RIDGE, TN             80  62  75  64  80 /  50  60  70  50  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    79  57  77  59  78 /  50  50  80  50  60
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG