000
FXUS64 KMRX 230742
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
342 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND SURFACE COLD TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND A PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AROUND 8 AM EDT.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RATCHET UP
A BIT AROUND MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL CAPES BUMPING UP
TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE HIGHER. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG GENERATING SOME HEALTHY GUSTS AND WITH FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND TEN TO ELEVEN THOUSAND FEET...SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
GRADUALLY DROP POPS BACK TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS MAX/MIN TEMP BLEND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS INTO THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRODUCING VERY WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AGAIN...STILL EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  57  74  46  79 /  50  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  71  43  75 /  50  40  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  55  72  41  75 /  50  30  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  54  65  36  72 /  60  50  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$