000
FXUS64 KMRX 180802
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL DEPICTED
ON SATELLITE PICS MOVING THROUGH W TN THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW
CENTERED BRIEFLY OVER SW PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AT 07Z. EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ADD UP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BY THIS EVENING. OPTED TO MENTION THIS
IN ZFP AND HWO PRODUCTS WITHOUT A FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO LATEST FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES.

RAIN AMOUNTS AND CHANCES FALL SHARPLY THIS EVENING...BUT LINGER
OVERNIGHT DUE TO TRAILING SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

MOS POPS NOT BAD...BUT I STAYED NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TODAY AND
CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT (HIGHER THAN GFS MOS).
NAM MOS MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FAVORED OVER THE WARMER GFS MOS...
THEN A MOS BLEND OF MINS FOR TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/....
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW
END ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  66  86  65  86 / 100  30  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  63  83  64  85 / 100  40  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  62  84  63  86 /  90  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  59  79  59  81 / 100  60  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/AMP