Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
636 FXUS63 KMKX 090943 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 443 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of rain, and a few rumbles of thunder will continue into the mid afternoon before gradually tapering off. - Winds and waves will approach but stop short of Small Craft Advisory criteria this afternoon. Trends will be monitored to see if conditions reach criteria and warrant an Advisory. - Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Friday evening through Saturday. Strong storms are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 416 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Today through Friday: WAA from the TROWAL region of a low pressure passing to our south over IL/IN will continue to spur shower activity through the rest of this morning into the mid afternoon. By the mid afternoon, most of this WAA should pivot south and east, and CAA should kick in aloft. The CAA may be enough to sustain some scattered light instability driven showers into the early evening. Weak sfc ridging should then move in overnight promoting subsidence and the clearing of skies overnight and through most of Friday. Clouds will then increase late Friday afternoon as a weak shortwave and sfc low bring an area of showers and thunder southeast from MN toward southern WI. Temperatures overall today should be limited by the cloud cover and rain limiting highs to the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures then rebound on Friday to the mid to upper 60s. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 438 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Friday night through Wednesday: A weak surface low and shortwave is expected to bring shower and storm activity Friday night into early Saturday morning for most of southern WI. The main wave/sfc low should exit southeast by dawn on Saturday, and skies should clear. This will promote sufficient daytime heating and with cold air aloft from a larger 500mb trough positioned over Lake Superior/Southern Canada, we may hit the covective temperatures and get instability driven showers Saturday afternoon. PoPs for this are low at the moment (~30% from 18z Sat to 00z Sun), so any activity that forms Saturday afternoon isn`t anticipated to be a washout at this time. A weak sfc ridge will then pass over the area Saturday night into Sunday, ahead of a weak sfc trough that will sink southeast Sunday evening, bring more nebulous chances for rain/rumbles of thunder Sunday night. Long range models then grow fuzzy in their evolution beyond Sunday night, with the NBM painting broad PoPs of 20 to 35% over the upper Great Lakes region through most of the rest of the extended. Aloft, flow grows more zonal with multiple waves propagating from west to east leading to on and off rain chances into mid week. None of this activity looks like it will be severe however. We will suffer from a lack of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as the subtropical jet is expected to blow up multiple thunderstorm complexes through the Gulf States this upcoming week, blocking good sfc return flow and flow aloft looks weak, keeping shear low. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 442 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Rain showers will continue through the morning hours into the mid afternoon. With the rain mostly VFR ceilings are expected with some dips into high MVFR ranging from 2500 to 3000 ft. Visibility will only be hampered in areas of heavier rain. Northwest winds will feature breeze from 15 to 20 knots late this morning into the afternoon. Winds should then ease tonight. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 401 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will be replaced by weak high pressure of 29.9 inches over Lake Michigan later today and into tonight. There should be extensive cloud cover over most of the lake, save for the north end, with areas of light rain mainly over the southern half of the lake during this time. Gusty north to northeast winds to around 20 knots, with occasional higher gusts, will occur over the lake, mainly late this morning into the evening. Locally, these gusts will approach small craft advisory criteria for a brief period this afternoon, but fall short of needing an advisory issuance. Nonetheless, we will monitor winds and waves to see if conditions come in stronger than forecast and warrant an advisory. Gusts should then taper off tonight. Friday should be dry before the next low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes Friday night with increasing winds and another chance for rain. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee