532
FXUS64 KMOB 101133
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

MVFR or higher conditions following exiting showers and
thunderstorms are expected to drop to low end MVFR/IFR conditions
currently moving over Mississippi portions of the forecast area.
This drop is expected to be temporary, with general VFR
conditions following by 17z/12n. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots
will become northwest to northerly today as a cold front sags
south across the area and last through tonight.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #226 continues for most of interior
southeast MS and interior southwest and south central AL through 5
AM. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch (#228) has been issued for the
coastal counties of AL and the three western-most counties of the
FL panhandle until 7 AM CDT. The severe threat over inland areas
will be diminishing toward daybreak, but the severe threat for the
coastal counties will be increasing through daybreak and shortly
thereafter. For a more detailed discussion of the severe weather
over the next several hours please refer to Mesoscale Update we
just issued at 140 AM CDT (also found at the bottom of this
discussion).

The showers and thunderstorms will be ending from west to east
across the area later this morning as a cold front moves east
across the area. The front should be just east of our entire
forecast area by late this afternoon. The front will be well to
the south of the forecast area and out over the Gulf tonight
through Sunday night, with slightly cooler temperatures and a much
drier airmass in place across the region. For today we will still
be looking at likely to definite PoPs (60-90 percent) through
late morning or mid day, but PoPs should start to drop rapidly
thereafter with only isolated PoPs east of the I-65 corridor by
late afternoon. No PoPs tonight through Sunday, with a low end
chance PoP returning by late Sunday night as the front that has
been stalled over the Gulf begins to lift back north as a warm
front.

Temperatures will cool off during the forecast period. Will still
be a little warm and muggy today with highs in the mid 80s for
most locations, but daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will only be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the entire region (maybe a
few mid 80s near the coast). Lows tonight and Saturday night will
range from the mid 50s inland to the mid 60s coastal, and then
slightly warmer Sunday night with lows ranging from the low 60s
inland to the upper 60s coastal.  DS/12

EXTENDED TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A more unsettled weather pattern returns most of the extended term
period as the warm front moves inland over the southeast CONUS and
a series of short waves periodically moves east across the region.
Monday and Tuesday, look for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day and then scattered storms Wednesday and
Thursday. There could be some stronger storms at times, but model
disagreement continues and we will continue to monitor and make
adjustments as we get closer to the time frame in question.
Daytime highs on Monday in the 70s and 80s, then a little warmer
Tuesday through Thursday, with highs mainly in the 80s. Lows
Monday night through Wednesday night will range from the mid and
upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s along the coast. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A line of very intense thunderstorms will be moving east across
the bays and near shore waters early this morning, with winds in
excess 60 to 70 knots possible. These conditions will be very
hazardous to small craft early this morning. Otherwise, a moderate
to occasionally strong onshore flow early this morning will become
more westerly during the day today. Winds become northerly and
decrease somewhat by Friday night, with a light to moderate
offshore flow then prevailing through most of the weekend. A light
to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area during the
early part of next week. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

Severe threat ongoing across the northern half of the forecast
area with the threat ramping up over the next few hours across the
southern half of the area.

A severe line of storms has moved into far inland southwest
Alabama as of this discussion time. As the line continues to move
east, it will start to encounter a slightly less favorable
airmass. This is due to an outflow boundary that has cooled
temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across Crenshaw, Butler,
and parts of Wilcox and northern Covington Counties. This has
created an instability gradient and will likely result in the
northern part of this line gradually weakening. However, a severe
threat will still persist especially just to the south of the
outflow boundary.

Further south the severe threat will ramp up as storms continue to
organize and strengthen back west across southwest and south
central MS. These storms will have a much more unstable airmass
with SBCAPES still in the 2500-4000 J/kg range, mid level lapse
rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and deep layer shear of 50-60 kt. In fact,
KMOB radar is showing a developing rear inflow jet in some of the
storms between McComb and Hattiesburg. Storms will continue to
develop to the south along the southward moving outflow boundary
with strong to severe convection quickly organizing across
portions of SE MS into coastal AL by 3-4am. This convection will
then spread into the NW FL Panhandle through 6am. These storms
will carry an enhanced wind threat with wind gusts over 70mph
possible and individual cells could produce isolated instances of
large hail. Low level flow remains rather weak and veered which
will keep the tornado threat low overall. However, a quick spin up
or two cannot be ruled if the storms congeal into a more organized
complex. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed for coastal
AL and NW FL within the next hour. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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