Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 021840
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS PROMOTED ANOTHER VERY
WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING EVERYWHERE. SOME DENSE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND/LINGER OF THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP LOWS UP A FEW
DEGREES IN THESE AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE AS READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON.
FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...GIVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH ACTION FOR FRIDAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WITH JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH RIDGING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE. STILL LOOKS LIKE SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCES IN PLACE OVER
THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE WHICH SHOWS UP AS A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE
EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH. THUS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY AND ABOUT 30
TO 40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE WORK
WEEK...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE PROBABILITIES FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DROP BACK TO THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  93  70  91 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  91  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  91  67  88 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  89  64  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TH


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