Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 262022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
A 850-700 MB TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.
THIS WILL CREATE SOME LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SW VA AND NE TN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH 850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 C FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HOLD TIGHT IN THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT A DOWNSLOPE NW WIND OFF THE
PLATEAU MAY HELP ERODE SOME CLOUDS IN THE VALLEY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THURSDAY)...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST COLD NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. KEPT SATURDAY
MORNING AND DAY TIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO
ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER LINGERING.

MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE EAST TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION COULD GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EARLY AND
THEN MAY RISE LATER AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE TN VALLEY BEHIND WARM FRONT BUT MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN MELTING THE SNOW COVER. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
BACK SOUTH SOMEWHAT. THEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL HEAD NORTHEAST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS STILL SOME
SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ANOTHER FRONT WITH SOME COLD AIR
BEHIND IT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SECOND FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             24  36  23  44 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  23  32  20  41 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       22  33  19  42 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              21  28  16  39 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD


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