Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 221853
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...An upper/mid level trough will
dig into the plains and cut off over the Mississippi Valley before
lifting northeast.  A wave of surface low pressure will ride north
northeast along an approaching cold front, with the cold front
pushing into our area very late tonight and should exit Monday early
afternoon. Convective energy looks very limited at best, so no
thunder in the forecast for now.  However, should see rain all areas
with this system. Southeasterly low level jet will strengthen
overnight, and while conditions do not look ideal there is at least
some potential for mountain wave enhancement of the winds in the
usual higher elevation/foothills areas of the East TN mountains.
Will issue a wind advisory for the TN higher elevation zones from
Monroe north for tonight/Monday morning.  Rain should be diminishing
from southwest to northeast Monday late morning/afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...The shortwave trough at
the start of this period will generally be east of the forecast
area. Have allowed for some variance/slower motion to the precip
field that follows in the wake of the front/trough. A deeper trough
will dig in quickly behind the exiting shortwave by Tuesday morning.
This will bring another reinforcing shot of cool air across the area
through Wednesday. Wednesday will be the coolest day this week with
daytime temperatures in the 40s and 50s! Models diverge on how much
moisture remains particularly over southwest VA and northeast TN
Tuesday into Wednesday. Slight chance of PoPs is reasonable for
these areas and timeframe.

By Friday night another deep trough and associated cold front will
edge closer to the forecast area. Southerly flow will bring
increasing moisture and warm temperatures back to the region. As a
result, rain chances will begin increasing Friday night through the
weekend and temperatures will drop to below normal.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  70  48  63 /  90 100  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  69  48  61 /  50  90  40  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  69  47  61 /  60 100  40  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  71  46  62 /  30  90  70  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Monday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/AC


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