Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 100816
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SOME
MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY CAUSING THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION MOVES OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THESE BANDS CAN
PRODUCE A QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY...WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY NORTHWARD UNTIL 18Z.

OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIMES
GOING.

SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST. THIS TREND OF LOW-CLOUD SLOWLY ERODING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

A VERY WEAK WAVE WILL QUICK APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT SYSTEM
IS WEAKENING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. BESIDES RETURN
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALL DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THE
CLOUDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OVER THE AREA...MAKING
FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO AN INCH FOR THESE AREAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING FOR THE VALENTINE`S WEEKEND...AND SOME
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY /PRESIDENTS DAY/.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM...INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...DO THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE
AGAIN...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE COLD SUBFREEZING
AIR IN PLACE...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH WOULD
ADVECT WARMER TO TRANSITION SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND EVENING. THE GFS...IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIGHTLY CUT DOWN ON ANY
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AND WILL MONITOR MODELS TRENDS TO ADDRESS CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  26  45  27 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  28  22  38  24 /  30  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  21  39  23 /  30  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  15  31  18 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




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