Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 061856
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY STATIC THROUGH
TOMORROW...SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR THE SHORT
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. AS INDICATED BY THE NAM
AND HRRR...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN SW VA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE TN WHERE MIDLEVEL CAPPING IS WEAKEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIMILAR PROFILE TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY NORTH AND THE LEAST INSTABILITY SOUTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE HIGHER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...SO WILL HAVE LOWS TONIGHT A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE IN THE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. THE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER HIGH
ELEVATIONS. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE EACH DAY. ONLY CONCERN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS A LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MODELS INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND TRACK BUT GENERAL TREND KEEPS
THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IF THIS LOW DOES REACH FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE MRX CWA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AROUND THE
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION INCREASES DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WILL EVENTUAL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN AROUND
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...IT WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY DURING THE EXTENDED.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT EXIT THE
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  84  60  86 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  85  60  86 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  85  58  83 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/MJB



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