Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 261907
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER SPARSE AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND SPARTA TN NE TO JUST WEST OF
LONDON KY. LATEST HRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT
CHANGE MY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS MUCH FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TODAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS. STAYED BELOW EVEN THE COLDER MOS MAXES FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN THE COLDER/FAVORED AREAS
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. I ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...LIMITED TO MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND MTN AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR FREEZE PROGRAM AREA AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES...IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THROUGH 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHILLY BUT DRY START
TO THE LONG TERM AS OFFENDING DEEP EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER
SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GOING
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. APPLYING THE
CONSALL BLENDED APPROACH...ENDED THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN...A
RATHER COLD BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MOST PLEASANT
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH TAKES A WHILE BUT ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG



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