452
FNUS21 KWNS 111644
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

...17z Update...
The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated
fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and
central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions
will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula.
However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and
humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the
previous discussion for more details.

..Lyons.. 05/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes
today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will
overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and
southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations.
As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of
the CONUS, with a few exceptions.

The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will
encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent
RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the
afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights.
Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning
could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as
well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to
introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook.

Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across
portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies
greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient
conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights
withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is
possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon
hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$