617
FNUS53 KAPX 120906
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
506 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...Showers likely and a few thunderstorms this evening...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move into northern lower
Michigan late tonight. A few showers will be possible in north
central and northeast lower Michigan from late this morning into
mid afternoon. A better chance for showers arrives late today,
carrying into tonight. On Monday, rain chances will linger near
Saginaw Bay.

South winds will develop and increase today, gusting above 20
mph this afternoon and evening. Humidity levels will drop to
near 30 percent in northwest lower Michigan, somewhat more moist
elsewhere. A light northwest breeze arrives for Monday.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-122200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
506 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers until
                    1200, then chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (639).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.13 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (59).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.30 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Areas of fog
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 7 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (326).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-122200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
506 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (534).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (74).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.19 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (314).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.18 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-122200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
506 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (855).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 24 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.13 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then rain
                    showers likely and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (47).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.72 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of fog
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (187).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-122200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
506 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (925).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400. Chance of thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers likely after 2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer...except 9 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.45 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of fog
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 10 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (225).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-122200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
506 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1137).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (75).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.34 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (380).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.19 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ