795
ACUS11 KWNS 110012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110012
FLZ000-110115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 110012Z - 110115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust could accompany any ongoing
storms over the next few hours, and a waterspout cannot be ruled out
along coastal areas. The severe risk should remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently traversing the
Big Bend area of northern FL amid a warm and moist low-level
airmass. Surface temperatures in the low 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints
yield over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE on the cool side of a residual
baroclinic boundary, where storm maturation could occur. Given the
presence of 50+ kt effective bulk shear values (driven by elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature), transient supercells
may develop from the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms. Confidence in
this scenario is modest at best. However, any storm that can mature
in this environment could produce a damaging gust or two, and a
waterspout could also form close to the coastline. The best chance
for a gust or waterspout would be in the next few hours, before
nocturnal cooling will support boundary layer stabilization and a
decrease in thunderstorm potential. Since the severe threat should
be sparse at best, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30168460 30068314 29558184 28968114 28448124 28108182
            28008230 28138271 28688320 29358374 29718439 30168460