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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260216
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...PROVIDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN INTO THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH INTO THE
REGION. THAT FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013


COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST REMAIN ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND JAMES BAY...WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE SUPPLIED BY AN UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS... BUT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY. OVERALL
EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE ON TRACK
TONIGHT...AS IR SATELLITE AND AREA SFC OBS SHOW ONLY THIN HIGH CI
OVR SRN MI.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST REMAIN ON TRACK ALSO...AS TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50 WITH SFC DEW PTS NEAR 32F. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST.  BLOCKY PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.  SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE STUCK OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BLOCKED OFF BY STRENGTHENING SYSTEM BRINGING MISERABLE WEATHER TO
NEW ENGLAND THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...DEEP LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AT BAY FOR THE MOST
PART.  SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.  SO ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY WILL BE
GOING UP WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
(EASTERN UPPER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BEGIN MONDAY).  SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A NEAR COPY OF TODAY...WHILE ADDING ON A COUPLE DEGREES TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE LAKE BREEZES WON`T HAVE AN
IMPACT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HOLDS ON THROUGH MONDAY
LEADING TO A PLEASANT END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.
MEANWHILE...AS THE CLOSED LOW PLAGUING NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND
FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY YIELDING LOW CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME (EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT). AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POPS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE
ACTUAL DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST CERTAINLY CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MORE SEASONABLE 50S AND 60S AFTER
A COOL 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LINGER OVER NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY STRETCHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH CLD FROM THE IOWA MCS FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL LINGER OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF STIES TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SR
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SR
MARINE...JB