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000
FXUS63 KAPX 170752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGANS WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MOIST AIR PRESSING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CURRENTLY
BUT STARTING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHINESS DEEPENS ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SIGNALING WARMER DAYS AHEAD.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS NUDGED IT/S WAY DOWN OUT OF ONTARIO
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA...BUT WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM US AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AS WELL AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THUS...WILL SEE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES...A LITTLE WARMER AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND EXPECT
INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON LIKE THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GOING BELOW 25
PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 75 FOR MOST AREAS
AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). YES IT WILL BE DRY
BUT WITHOUT DECENT WIND...WILL NOT HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR (HIGH THETA-E) BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST SURGE/FORCING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP. HERE AT HOME...NOT SO IMPRESSED. NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL BE INCHING UP THROUGH STATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING
FORCING (MOIST CONVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WHERE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED. SUPPOSE ITS
PLAUSIBLE WE GET A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING THETA-E GRADIENT ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE JUST NOT
THAT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. IN THE END...FOR CONTINUITY AND
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY  DRY
OUT BY THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HOW MUCH IT WILL
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS THETA-E
RIDGING APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY RAIN...AS THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S...WITH THE WARMER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY EXPECTED.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY THEN BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN VARY ON THE TIMING OF DRYING FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WILL PENCIL THURSDAY IN AS A DRY DAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. REMAINING WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW COOLING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO MI FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE EAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR. NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME -SHRA COULD
APPROACH NW LOWER MI FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY
THAN ACTUAL PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. AT THAT TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA