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000
FXUS63 KAPX 141655
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1255 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS, THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE FORECASTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES, SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FORECAST IS FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED CURVE FOR THE LATE MORNING. SO
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS IT STANDS NOW, OTHER THAN TAKE THE
MORNING FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS, SO THAT IT DOESN`T SHOW UP
IN THE ZONES. TWEAKED THE THE AREA OF FROST FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MESH BETTER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MINOR TWEAKS ONLY TO THE FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES ABOUND ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS POPPED UP OVER THE LAST HOUR IN
A FEW SPOTS WHERE TEMPS FINALLY COOLED ENOUGH. WILL ADD TO THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING LAST LOBE OF MOISTURE ROTATING DOWN
THROUGH SE ONTARIO/LAKE HURON AND A SLICE OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LAST BIT OF PESKY LOWER CLOUDS FROM HARRISVILLE TO TAWAS THINNING
OUT AND ADVANCING DOWN INTO THE THUMB. UPSTREAM...LARGE EXPANSE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS (850 MB DEWPOINT OF
-7C AT PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO LAST EVENING) WILL LEAD TO ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY
HEATING INDUCED CU DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS TO
CRASH INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY LOWER...WITH RESULTING MIN RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. TEMPS WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S...BUT WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH. REALLY LIKE TO SEE MORE WIND BEFORE
PROCLAIMING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. BUT GIVEN THE FORECAST LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY WARM
TEMPS WILL KEEP IT IN AT THIS POINT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LOW SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MID 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN COLDEST INLAND SPOTS WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A FROST HEADLINE...BUT DAY SHIFT CAN FURTHER EVALUATE
THAT POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME SO FAR THIS EARLY
SUMMER...AND LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SIMPLY DOES NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM SUCH. RATHER STABLE 4-WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH PATTERN LOCK-DOWN DUAL TROUGH AXES...ONE
CENTERED NEAR/OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH ANOTHER OVER EASTERN
CANADA. VARYING DEGREES OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...THE MOST PROMINENT AND REOCCURRING OF WHICH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO DOUBT ABOVE
SUPPORTS A RATHER VIGOROUS AND SHORTWAVE-LACED OVERHEAD NORTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UNFORTUNATELY
...FOR THE GROWING LIST OF THOSE LONGING FOR SOME INCREASINGLY
NEEDED RAINS...SAME PATTERN OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORTS BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/ATTENDANT INSTABILITY RESIDING SAFELY TO OUR SOUTH. HEART
OF MOISTURE-HOGGING MCS SEASON IS UPON US...AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
FULLY SUPPORTS THESE REMAINING WELL OF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. PASSING WAVES WILL OFFER SOME
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT AS
FOR A GOOD SOAKING...JUST DON`T SEE THAT COMING DOWN THE PIPELINE
ANYTIME SOON. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON ABOVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS.

A TIME OF TRANSITION TO START THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SUCCUMBING TO ITS MID LEVEL LIKENESS ON SATURDAY. BACKSIDE
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...TUCKED
IN NICELY WITHIN CORRIDOR OF RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALL
GOOD LOW LEVEL EXCITEMENT REMAINS FOCUSED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT...WITH NICE TRIFECTA OF PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.5 INCHES...ML CAPES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG...AND SOMEWHAT DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. KINDA ENVISION UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THIS INSTABILITY MAXIMA...ALL-THE-WHILE
DRY OVERHEAD LOW LEVELS FIGHT EAST PROGRESSION OF NORTHERN END OF
ACTIVITY. SUPPOSE A SPRINKLE OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE SURFACE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOTHING TO GET TOO WORKED UP OVER FOR SURE. SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF SUNDAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN AHEAD AND ALONG APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE AS WELL AS
AREA GETS UNDER RER QUADRANT OF H25 JET STREAK (MID LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER SUSPECT WITH SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE DRIVEN VORT LOBES).
DESPITE ABOVE... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH (SEE A REOCCURRING THEME HERE?)
WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY CHARGED LOW LEVEL JET
IS MAXIMIZED WITH DEEP LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION. CHANCY POPS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW WITH DEFINITE POSSIBILITY SOUTHERN LAKES ACTIVITY
SIMPLY PREVENTS MUCH...IF ANYTHING...FROM FIRING THIS FAR NORTH.
WILL ENTERTAIN THE THOUGHT OF ADDING THUNDER WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD BE WELL REMOVED FROM ANY
SEVERE THREAT. TRENDS SHOW A QUICKER EXIT OF SURFACE TROUGHING
SUNDAY...WITH POST-FRONTAL DRYING PERHAPS NEGATING ANY ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. APPROACH OF LATE
AFTERNOON VORT LOBE AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE EXCELLENT INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN DUAL LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY ENTICE A
FEW SHOWERS UP THAT WAY. TOO EARLY TO GET THIS SPECIFIC JUST
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN COMING DAYS.

DECENT GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLY PROGS
SUPPORT SOME HEALTHY ATTENDANT DYNAMICS...WITH SHARP TROUGH AXIS
ACCOMPANIED BY SLUG OF RESPECTABLE UPWARD QG SUPPORT/DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE. SEPARATION BETWEEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS REMAINS...BUT HARD TO ARGUE WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GIVEN BREADTH OF PROJECTED
DYNAMICS. TRENDS ALSO QUICKER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RATHER AGGRESSIVELY MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAINTAINS CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN
BY RAIN/CLOUD TRENDS. PATTERN SUPPORTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEAT
ANYTIME SOON...WITH RECENT AND CURRENT THERMAL TRENDS LIKELY TO HOLD
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR...MOSTLY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A
FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR...INCLUDING MBL. THIS WILL BE
TEMPORARY AND WILL CLEAR BY AROUND 12Z. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LAKE BREEZES ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH ONSHORE LAKE BREEZES LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS TONIGHT. A BIT STRONGER W/SW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA AT
THIS POINT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA