000
FXUS63 KAPX 160735
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WILL SLOWLY EXIT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE MUGGY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE SOME SUN ALONG WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED MID LEVEL WAVES HELPING DRIVE A RATHER
HEALTHY AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE STRAITS...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING OVER A HALF INCH OF MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. OVERHEAD PROGRESSIVE FLOW SOUTH OF SOUTH CANADA MID
LEVEL LOW KEEPING THINGS ON THE MOVE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONFIRMING RAPID OFF THE DECK DRYING ALREADY PUSHING INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL DRYING MUCH SLOWER TO ARRIVE...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN (NO DOUBT
HELPED ALONG BY HEAVY EARLY EVENING RAINS). EXPECT ABOVE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
CORRIDOR OF RAINS STEADILY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
ON ENDING OF INITIAL RAIN THREAT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS MORE ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

OVERNIGHT RAINS SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE TODAY...WITH
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVERSPREADING OUR AREA BEHIND PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. MORNING EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...WITH LOW
CLOUDS/FOG STEADILY MIXING OUT AS LOW LEVEL DRYING ENSUES. FOCUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON CENTERS ON DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN DUAL SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AXES
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM DEWPOINT
ANALYSIS AND BACKWARD RUN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BOTH SUGGEST TOO
HIGH OF GUIDANCE PROGGED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT OVERLY STELLAR EITHER...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH COMPLETE LACK OF BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS...JUST CAN FIND
NO COMPELLING REASON FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER. MUCH TOUGHER CALL NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH
LAKE DRIVEN INTERIOR CONVERGENCE AXIS SETTING UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER. BACKGROUND WEST WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR THIS CONVERGENCE DROPPING SOUTH WITH TIME...PERHAPS PUSHING
INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEEP FORCING NOTHING TO RIGHT HOME ABOUT...BUT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS YESTERDAY BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DID MANAGE TO SPARK
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS
UPSTREAM AIRMASS SPREADING INTO EASTERN UPPER AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. BASED ON UPSTREAM COVERAGE AND LESS THAN IDEAL SURFACE
MOISTURE PROGS...WITH KEEP JUST LOW END SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL...SLOWLY SLIDING THIS CORRIDOR SOUTH WITH CONVERGENCE
ZONE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT MARGINALLY DRY LOW LEVELS
DOES SUPPORT SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. A RATHER MILD DAY BY RECENT STANDARDS...WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. OF COURSE...
READINGS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER NEAR THE BIG WATERS AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT. SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORCING...HOWEVER...IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...AND FEATURES
ARE COMING THROUGH WHEN ALL DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS LOST.
SURFACE/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY BE ABLE TO KICK A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW THESE FEATURES
SOUTH FOR LOW END POP PLACEMENT. LOW TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT DROPPED INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MONDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM 12C SUNDAY TO BTWN 6C-8C MONDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING WEEKEND SYSTEM. DRIER AIR ALSO PROGGED
TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...AS
850MB DEW PTS DROP FROM 12C SUNDAY TO UNDER 4C BY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE SFC DEW PTS DROP FROM THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER 40S
BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL FORECAST TREND FOR MONDAY WILL BE COOLER
WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ENDING OVER ERN UPPER IN THE MORNING
...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE SE CWA...AS
850MB MSTR REMAINS HIGH WHILE 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW SOME
CONVERGENCE LINGERING NEAR SAGINAW BAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH. OTHERWISE...WILL MENTION TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BECAME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY...WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT UPPER LEVELS
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH EARLY WILL TREND MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM FROM 8C TUESDAY TO NEARLY 12C
BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WITH 850MB DEW PTS BETWEEN 0C AND -4C WHILE SFC DEW PTS REMAIN IN
THE 40S. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY A DRY TREND INTO MIDWEEK
WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE IS
A SMALL CHC OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE STRAITS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AS WEAK FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH COMBINES WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL DEW PTS...THOUGH WILL KEEP CHCS
TO A MINIMUM AT THE MOMENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK AND
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL INTO SATURDAY...AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DRAPES SOUTH OVR NRN MI BY FRIDAY WHILE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
THURSDAY TRANSITIONS TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING BY SATURDAY. SUMMER
LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN 12C AND 14C WHILE MILD LVL
DEW PTS INCREASE TO 12C AND SFC DEW PTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SUPERIOR...TO IOWA.
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO THE REGION...SUPPORTING AN AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER. VSBYS/CIGS WILL LOWER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...MOSTLY TO VFR. PLN WILL GO IFR...AS A STRATUS DECK
SLOWLY OOZES SOUTH FROM UPPER MI. DRIER AIR WILL WORK BACK IN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A TOUCH OF A WEST BREEZE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOG AND HAZE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HEADING THROUGH TODAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RICH AIR OVERSPREADS THE STILL COOL LAKE
WATERS. SOME OF THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AND END...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING FOR PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MB