000
FXUS63 KAPX 181701
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
101 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THICKEST MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ELEVATED WARM FRONT/MID LEVEL ADIABATIC OMEGA.  STILL A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT PCPN COVERAGE HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY COVER...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STILL MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
LOSE THE CLOUDS FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER.
WARMEST TEMPS /MID 70S/ TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE
GREATEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ELEVATED WARM FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING
WITH DEEPEST FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA. DESPITE
LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW 800MB ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...STILL
ENOUGH FORCING TO CREATE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES /SPOTTER
REPORTS UP TO 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN/. FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EVERYTHING GRADUALLY PUSHES TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT.
LIKELY STILL SOME SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING FORCING AND PLENTY OF MID CLOUD.
PREVAILING CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME BREAKS LIKELY OVER
SRN/SW AREAS. LOWERED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
GAYLORD NORTHWARD WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
WELL UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA IN THE VCNTY OF AN 850 MB THETA E
RIDGE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. LATEST NAM STILL POINTS TOWARD THIS
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA THRU
THE DAY...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED FOR US TODAY. THESE ISOLD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA THRU THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT
EDGES CLOSER. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE TIMING OF WX/POPS FOR
NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
SHOWED A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPRINKLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SUBTLE WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING THETA-E RIDGING (MOISTURE) ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE REMAIN TO OUR WEST
CLOSER TO PARENT UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WHEELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY
WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE (FROM ABOUT 850 TO JUST BELOW 500
MB). SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MARCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY DRY
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LEFTOVER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY...WILL BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. ERN EDGE OF A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. STILL APPEARS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS OUR LAST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR
MOST OF NEXT WORK WEEK (MORE ON THIS BELOW). AT THIS POINT...SUNDAY
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR WRN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT NORTHWARD THRU THE LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES RIDING NE THRU MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOWER...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN THE RULE BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEREFORE KEEPING OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THRU MID WEEK (AT LEAST). WARM TEMPS WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...EXITING EAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY
AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...BUT SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL LEND TO HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FIRST LOOK AT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID CLOUDS AND
A FEW SPRINKLES.  SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FIELDS ON SUNDAY WITH BASES
FROM 5-6K.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
CLOSER TO THE COASTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND  A
HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...AS