000
FXUS63 KAPX 140635
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
235 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS
WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A SHOWER YET THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY EAST OF I75. THEN...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM RETURNS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

POCKET OF LOWER CLOUD COVER (AROUND 5K FEET) STILL IMPACTING PARTS
OF THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE FROM HARRISVILLE TO OSCODA/TAWAS
AREA...AND HAVE STRETCHED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OUT FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT/EXIT S/SE BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS ONLY
SLOWLY DROPPING THANKS TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. WILL TWEAK TEMP
CURVE AS NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

CU FIELD REMNANTS MANAGED TO SPREAD OUT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...BRIEFLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER
MI MID-EVENING. HOWEVER...A WALL OF MUCH DRIER AIR IS RAPIDLY
ELIMINATING THIS CLOUD DECK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

INTERESTING TO SEE...IN THE LAST USABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX OF
THE DAY...AN ELEVATED SMOKE/HAZE LAYER INVADING UPPER MI AND
SURROUNDINGS FROM THE N AND NE. THE ORIGIN APPEARS TO BE A
CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS FIRES JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN JAMES BAY IN
QUEBEC.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT NOW...BUT WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AFTER 03Z. EXPECT SOME COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NE LOWER MI COAST...TO REMAIN COUPLED. BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS
WILL DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT PROCEEDS. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME TO THE USUAL COOLER LOCALES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/-SHRA HANGING ON IN NE LOWER MI. THOSE
SHOULD RUN THEIR COURSE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP
EVENING CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE SAME AREA...WHILE DECREASING
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

CURRENTLY, SFC LOW THAT KICKED OFF THE ONGOING MCS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST IS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT 500MB, THE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE
REGION IN QUEBEC, WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHOSE AXIS IS IN SE
LOWER. TO THE WEST THE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

TONIGHT...AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH AND INTO
THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE EAST, IT WILL TAKE THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 MPH
AS THE SFC GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. IF THEY DO DECOUPLE IT WON`T BE UNTIL
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, JUST AS THE HEATING TAKES PLACE.

FRIDAY...DRY AIR, NOT ONLY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER(<20%), BUT ALSO
AT 850 MB WHERE THE RH WILL DRY TO AROUND 30%. WITH ALL OF THIS SF
RH WILL PROBABLY DRY TO AROUND 20% IN NE LOWER, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURON FOREST. THERE WILL A QUITE A FEW
PLACES THAT WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 25%. WHILE PROBABLY HAVE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES (>75F)
AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US,
THE WINDS WON`T KICK UP ENOUGH TO GET US TO A HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...WITH
MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC...AND A
SMALLER SCALE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
EASTERN TROUGH FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO IT...WITH HEIGHTS ALSO
REMAINING SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS.
OMEGA BLOCKING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SOME
OF THE WESTERN ENERGY EVENTUALLY WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT.  BUT MAY BE A PUSH OF WARMER
WEATHER IN THE OFFING TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES TO START THE WEEKEND...
WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BOW EASTWARD AND INTO
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY.  LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS TOWARD
THE UPPER LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SENSIBLE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES EXPECTED TO ENSURE A QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH MID CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY MORNING...REMNANTS OF A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COMING OUT OF WISCONSIN. APPEARS TENDENCY WILL BE
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO THIN WITH TIME...PERHAPS NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A VIRGA STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT AS CLEAR CUT LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 700MB RESULTING IN SOME
INCREASED ELEVATED CAPE THOUGH A FAIR BIT OF CINH AS WELL. WILL
COVER THIS WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH PLENTY
OF TIME TO RE-EVALUATE. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD IN/DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT

SUNDAY PROBABLY STARTS OUT ON THE CLOUDY SIDE...BUT EXPECT SUN TO
MIX IN AS OCCLUDED FRONT REMNANTS CROSS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.  HOW
EFFECTIVELY THIS SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIG
ISSUE GOING FORWARD...AS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A DECENT
BIT OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER
SOUTH ONE GOES.  LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WON`T HURT TO CARRY SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST ALONG/EAST
OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 MPH
SATURDAY THOUGH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY (MAIN IMPACT FOR
LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS). LIGHT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...MORE
WEST/ SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THOUGH AGAIN LAKE HURON BREEZES PROBABLE.

TEMPERATURES: RELATIVELY COOL VERSUS NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES (AT LEAST TO START)...PLENTY OF 40S WITH
SOME 30S LIKELY IN LOW SPOTS. SEASONABLE 70S FOR SATURDAY HIGHS
PROVIDED CLOUD COVER DOESN`T GET TOO OUT OF HAND. MORE CLOUDS AND
MORE HUMID SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
(MAINLY 50S)...SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO WARM NICELY AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS...PROBABLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARM THAN SATURDAY HIGHS (MID
70S TO LOWER 80S).

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): SECOND PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA FORECAST TO SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES LATER MONDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.  BUT BEHIND THIS FEATURE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A DRYING
TREND FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
PREDOMINANT.  TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK PRETTY NON-DESCRIPT...NOT
STRAYING TOO FAR FROM CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTH...AND BE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
STRATOCU OVER LAKE HURON AND THE NE LOWER MI COAST WILL GET
SHUNTED SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AFTER THAT.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH AN ONSHORE/LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENT...WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE SFC HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL HAVE WINDS THAT ARE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JSL