000
FXUS63 KAPX 160754
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNALING WARMER AND RAIN-FREE DAYS AHEAD.

ON THE SMALLER SCALE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH A SUBTLE FRONT CURVING BACK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO REGION. FRONT IS FORECAST SAG DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING. SO TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND TRIM OFF A
FEW DEGREES...THAT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT RESULT. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONE
BATCH OF MID CLOUD AND SPOTTY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BEYOND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AFTER HEATING/MIXING TAPS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW 30S DEWPOINTS PROBABLY EASILY ATTAINABLE...WITH
EVEN LOW VALUES POSSIBLE IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DIPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME FROST A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS...
BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

QUIET AND DOWNRIGHT SPECTACULAR LATE SPRING WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP
AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
REALLY NO MAJOR CONCERNS FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A
QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FEATURING A TRANSITION FROM A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TOWARD ONE OF AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF RATHER SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO FORCE A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH TIME...HELPING
DRIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT A FEW SPECIFICS...JUST NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED BY ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME. ANY MAJOR PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION THIS
TIME OF YEAR). JUST NOT BUYING INTO NAM/GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FIRING THIS FAR NORTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ERRONEOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
(THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM SO FAR THIS YEAR). IN ADDITION...THE BEST
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A
PRONOUNCED SUB-800MB DRY WEDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...REALLY LIKE OUR CALL TO GO DRY AND WILL MAINTAIN...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE INCREASE IN SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN A
WEAK GRADIENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK COOL AND QUITE COMFORTABLE...AND GIVEN THE SETUP
WITH RESPECTABLE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN.

THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE OVERALL
SPECIFICS AREN`T KNOWN JUST YET...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ALL WHILE INCREASING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WITH
A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...SHOULD THINGS SET UP AS CURRENT MODELED
(THEY RARELY DO)...COULD SEE THIS BEING A HEAVY RAIN SETUP SOMEWHERE
NEARBY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY WARM READINGS (WELL INTO THE 80S?) AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING RIDES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ALSO THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN-COOLED 60S PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ANY
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
WITH A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR HOLD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT W/SW WINDS WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE N/NW AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BA