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000
FXUS64 KBMX 152322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS WITH MORE
OF A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
STATE...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODELS THE PAST DAY OR TWO
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES BEFORE STALLING. DUE TO THE
FLAT PATTERN ALOFT...I PREFER A SLOWER EURO/NAM SOLUTION WHICH
WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS BEING LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCER WITH MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 10-15Z WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAFS VFR AT THIS TIME.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$