National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 152332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF ALABAMA THRU 12Z AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD. FEW TO SCT CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

58/ROSE



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AFTER ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLENTY CLOUDS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE TO OUR WEST. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NET AFFECT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES AS POCKETS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT PASS NEAR THE CWA.
I TWEAKED THE POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT. THIS INCREASE TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINS MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THIS RAINFALL BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER ANYWHERE. I WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUIDANCE NUMBERS IF THERE WERE SOME SURFACE
FEATURE TO HELP WITH THE LIFT. AFTER SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY...SO LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR MID MAY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  82  58  82  59 /   0  10  20  40  30
ANNISTON    59  83  60  82  62 /   0  10  10  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  63  82  65  82  65 /   0  10  20  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  61  83  65  83  66 /   0  10  10  40  30
CALERA      61  82  63  82  63 /   0  10  10  30  30
AUBURN      63  83  64  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  62  86  64  85  65 /   0  10  10  20  20
TROY        58  84  62  85  63 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office