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000
FXUS62 KCAE 190012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
812 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DECREASING TREND. DECREASED POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS SIGNIFICANTLY WILL
SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA HOWEVER THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.
LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONVECTION
LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND MOS POPS OVERDONE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FALLING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN IT IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE
TO TAKE HOLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PROBABLY
COME IN WAVES...BUT DID NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING THIS FAR
OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DE PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
AREAS THAT ARE IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AROUND THE TERMINALS AND WILL INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS 00Z-02Z.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HRRR SUGGESTING IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. AM A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT GIVEN MANY OF THE
TERMINALS RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY AND THE OVERWHELMING AGREEMENT
AMONG GUIDANCE WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF WHICH ALSO SHOWS IFR
CEILINGS...RELUCTANTLY INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 16Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH LESS THAN 10 MPH.

UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING AND
LOCATION NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$