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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM GEORGIA AS UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING TO THE EAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN 80 PERCENT
AREA MOVING INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH THUNDER PRESENT...DECIDED TO MENTION CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ON INTO THE TODAY PERIOD.

TODAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. LIKED THE LOCAL LOCAL HIGH POPS LATER
TODAY. GENERALLY CARRIED 60 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DID INCLUDE 80-90 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON TOWARD EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WHOLE TODAY PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS VARY ON POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH AFFECTS THE STABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. GFS
MOS GIVES 84 HIGH WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WHEREAS NAM MOS GAVE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
79 HIGH. DECIDED ON A MODEL BLEND WITH 81 HIGH AND JUST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MODELS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR YESTERDAY. SPC
HAS AREA IN SEE TEXT AND THINK MAIN REASONING IS FOR WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD SKY COVER TODAY BUT IF THERE ARE
MORE BREAKS GIVING MORE SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE OBVIOUSLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MAINLY VFR AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. ACROSS OUR
FA...MOST RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS ARE GENERALLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
APPROACH MAY BE TO CONCENTRATE DETAIL IN THE NEAR TERM. LATEST RADAR
INDICATES AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE
GA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SE. WILL MONITOR RADAR FOR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS TO AGS/DNL IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND
CHANCES OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$