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000
FXUS62 KCAE 170509
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
109 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY BRINGING A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN GA STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS. MODELS SHOW
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY... WHICH COULD HELP
INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW
WELL PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING
THE AREA MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THERE
WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF STRATUS BOTH
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLAN ON CONTINUING THE 40-50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD HIGHS BELOW 90 IN THE UPPER 80S
MONDAY AND MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HOLD HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
70 AND IN THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE NEAR 40 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
NEAR THE EAST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EAST...RAIN CHANCES DROP
A BIT TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL OR SUMMER
LIKE IN NATURE. HIGHS ARE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT INCREASE TO
THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT THERE MAY BE
A FEW 90S AROUND SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NRN GA MOVING
EAST. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE SC DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS SEEM
TO BE HINTING THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATING SW WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. NAM BUFKIT
INDICATING DEEPEST MOISTURE AROUND 3000-4000 FEET OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP BEFORE SUNRISE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS. THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG FORMATION. AFTER ANY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE MENTION SHRA AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF
SITES BUT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
SHRA IN THE TAFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$