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000
FXUS62 KCAE 142349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE REGION. AFTERNOON
CUMULUS HAS THINNED OUT...AND WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROMOTE
BELOW NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. VERY LITTLE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED FROM EARLIER AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOW A LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SC/CU OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LOOKING AHEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR/OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL...PER GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST
WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. THE FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT IS LOW DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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