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000
FXUS61 KCTP 222122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED...

SVR WATCH #211 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES...

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS STRATIFIED CU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. LAPS SOUNDINGS STARTING TO DESTABLIZE
WITH SFC TEMPS APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND UP TO 1400 J/KG
ABOVE THE LFC. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER WV HAS CONTINUED TO BUT THIS
AREA HAS OVERALL BEEN WEAKENING AND SLIGHTLY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AND EVENTUAL INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH THE AREA
IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE...AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... WESTERN
PA WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS
30-40 KT 850 MB JET NOSES INTO EASTERN OHIO. WITH CIN APPEARING TO
DISSIPATE ON SCHEDULE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST. WITH SPEED
SHEAR OF 25 TO 40 KTS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND
CLUSTERS INTO THIS EVENING. PEAK INTENSITY LKLY BTWN APPROX
21-03Z.

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH MAXES
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...~10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AREA REMAINS IN SPC SEE TEXT OUTLOOK THURSDAY. GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PREFRONTAL WARMING/PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT WHICH COULD PROMOTE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
EAST.

CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF THE EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER IT MAY BE AT SLOWER PACE AS SOME
MODEL DATA IS TRENDING SLOWER/SHARPER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE ERN PART OF THE CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

A LIGHTER...DEFORMATION PCPN AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE
AREA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-
SCALE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GRT LKS TWD WV. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE
MODEL DIFFS HEADING INTO DAY 3 SURROUNDING THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF
THE H5 TROUGH CROSSING THE MID-ATLC REGION. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LGT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 55-65F. A BIT OF A RANGE DUE
TO THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MODE AND TRENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN AS IT WOULD LINGER LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA
/ESP IN THE EAST/ INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT FULLY BUY-INTO THIS
GIVEN HOW STRONG IT WAS WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW COMPARED TO THE
OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES EXTENDING SWD FROM
NUNAVUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY MEMORIAL
DAY. ENS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW NEGATIVE THERMAL/MOISTURE ANOMS
SUPPORTING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST IN THE NRN AND WRN MTNS SAT/SUN AM. THE GROWING SEASON
IS UNDERWAY IN THIS AREA /AS OF MAY 20TH/ AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FROST IN HWO. ELSEWHERE LOW TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY BY LATE-MAY STANDARDS...BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST.

Q-STNRY/WARM FRONTAL ZONE INITIALLY CENTERED FROM IA-WV SHOULD
SLOWLY RETURN NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC DIFFS
IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PARTICULARLY UPSTREAM. IN GENERAL...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
EARLY-MID WEEK WARMING TREND WITH HTS RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEEN UPDATING TAFS FOR CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

SEVERAL SPS ISSUED...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...NOTHING
SEVERE SO FAR. DECENT CAP...BEST DYNAMICS TO THE WEST...AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SE...NOT QUITE IN PHASE TO FIRE UP
STORMS YET...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SCT SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSBY AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z LOWER SUSQ.

COOLER AND BREEZY FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPS SE OF PA.

.OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW CIGS ETC...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN