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000
FXUS61 KCTP 150834
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BY TONIGHT...AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY VALLEY
FOG OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING FILTERED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. 850 MB TEMPS RANGING
FROM +11C TO +14C AND MODERATE MIXING SHOULD YIELD MAX SFC TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT AN MCS TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GLAKS AND TRACK INTO THE
ERN GLAKS BY 12Z SUN...AIDED BY DEEP LAYER PW SURGING TO 1.75" OR
HIGHER IN A PLUME THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY NEWD INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ONTARIO. THE DECAYING MCS SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND IT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER IN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

MAXES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY
GIVEN DECREASED OVERALL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS IN THE
+12C TO +15C RANGE WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR THAT AND EXPECT ONLY
A 2-3F DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FROM SAT TO SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST. MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD WILL SAG A LITTLE INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS THEN HINTS AT A GREAT WARM UP
FOR NEXT WEEKEND /DAY 8 PLUS/ AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH IN THE NERN
U.S. A BIT LONGER...SO THE HEAT MAY WAIT A DAY OR SO LONGER THAN
OPERATIONAL GFS CURRENTLY ADVERTISES.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO HURRY UP BY A FEW HOURS THE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST. ALSO SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS TO LIKLIES FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SET UP SHOP FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN AT THE SFC FOR MID-WEEK.
MADE THIS A BIT MORE OBVIOUS BY TWEAKING POPS DOWN INTO
UNMENTIONABLE RANGES FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
BROAD SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE WARM AIR IN
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/S COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE WARM AIR TRIES
TO WORK NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KBFD AFTER 06Z.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN TERMINALS
LATE MORNING SUNDAY...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...JUNG/CERU