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000
FXUS64 KMEG 242304 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
604 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ONLY A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES SUBTLY MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS LOW
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE PLEASANT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND AROUND 80F.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW NIGHT DEWPOINTS
WILL BEGIN CREEPING BACK INTO THE 60S...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO AT...OR ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD/STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STOUT CAP ALSO FORMING NEAR
850MB. THUS THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT WORK WEEK WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...BUT FREE OF PRECIPITATION.

AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST STARTING THURSDAY
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES ALLOWING THE CAP TO
WEAKEN. THIS MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES HOWEVER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN
JET FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE UNORGANIZED BUT OF A PULSE
TYPE NATURE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (25/00Z-26/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. WINDS 6 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS SE
5-7 KTS SATURDAY.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  54  81  62  87 /   0   0  10  20
MKL  47  79  54  85 /   0   0  10  20
JBR  50  79  59  86 /   0   0  10  30
TUP  50  80  56  87 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$