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000
FXUS64 KMEG 231955
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A COLD
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION MAKING FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND DIMINISH WINDS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL START TO BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE GONE WITH A
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SLOWLY WARM UP WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM TRACK AND FAVORABLE MCS ZONE TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. BLOW OFF FROM
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOME MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KMKL
BEFORE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT ALL SITES...STRONGEST TO THE NORTH
AT KJBR AND KMKL.

A REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING AND
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR
GREATER OVERNIGHT.

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS SUBSIDING IN INTENSITY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  57  74  55  80 /  10   0   0  10
MKL  51  73  47  78 /  10   0   0  10
JBR  54  72  52  78 /  10   0   0  10
TUP  57  76  49  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$