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000
FXUS64 KMEG 191731
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SEEING VERY LITTLE TO ANY CHANGE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S...WITH LOWS AROUND 70F.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE
THE BEST INFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY. FOR TONIGHT THIS SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD AS A FINGER OF THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE OZARKS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY SIMILAR DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CREST THE RIDGE AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FROM
TEN TO TWENTY PERCENT BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...WHICH IN REALITY IS
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STILL
END UP DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN THREAT AS MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.

FEEL BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE GFS INDICATES A SURGE OF MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THEN TURNING
NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS TRAJECTORY IS WHERE THE
WEAKNESS WILL LIE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS. DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES.
THE WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL GENERATE MORE SCATTERED PULSE
TYPE STORMS THAT WILL BE MORE DIURNAL AND SLOW MOVING. SO SOME
MIDSOUTHERNERS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH...WHILE OTHERS NOTHING.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE KMKL AREA
WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  91  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10
MKL  89  65  90  67 /  10  10  20  10
JBR  89  68  92  70 /  20  10  20  10
TUP  90  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$