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000
FXUS64 KMEG 131745 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1245 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A FEW MID CLOUDS ARE PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT THEY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS IS WARMING UP QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY THAT FROST IS NO LONGER A THREAT.
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

UNUSUALLY COLD WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE LATE
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BY WEEKS END...AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...NO COLDS FRONT
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL FROM THE NORTHWEST...ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN AR. JACKSON TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY BROKEN THEIR LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE DATE (PREVIOUS
RECORD 43 SET IN 1960).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A WARMING TREND WILL GET
UNDERWAY BY THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...IT WILL END UP BEING A PLEASANT DAY
WEATHERWISE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW
MORNING THAN THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

RAIN FREE AND WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE JUST
TO THE WEST OF RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST AR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARM AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE SPRING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STRENGTHENING CAP HELPING TO
SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
BNA TO JAN. WITH RIDGE AXIS IS CLOSE PROXIMITY...WINDS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING.
17Z LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A 1 TO 2 KT LOWER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL AND WINDS TO
SUFFICIENTLY DECOUPLE FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE TAIL WIND COMPONENTS
TO FALL BELOW 7 KTS AT MEM LATE THIS EVENING.

STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY 15Z TUESDAY.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  59  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
MKL  72  52  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
JBR  75  56  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
TUP  74  51  84  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$