000
FXUS64 KMEG 161609
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1109 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS.
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS. DO NOT EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BREAK UP MUCH
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
THE CONVECTION PUSHES EAST TOWARD EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION FROM POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO BE FROM WHAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
WITH 30 POPS FOR AREAS ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER OTHERWISE WILL DROP
POPS TO 20. WILL ALSO LOWER HIGHS A BIT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. UPDATE
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH THE CAP THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS BREAKING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY...FROM AN EARLIER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT PASSED WELL TO OUR NORTH...WAS BECOMING DIFFUSED BUT APPEARED
TO BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SLIDE SOUTHWARD HELPING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY FROM NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A MICROBURST POTENTIAL.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND NAM DO NOT
SHOW THIS STRONG OF A SURFACE LOW...BUT WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO
SHOW IT DEVELOPING WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT IT AS BEING INCORRECT.
REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS CONDITIONAL ON MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...IF THE
SURFACE LOW WAS TO DEVELOP LIKE THE GFS INDICATES...CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
OF RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
FASTER THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW. PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION...AND INCREASED THE POPS ONCE
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE NAM DOES SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT WITH A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND WHAT AN EXTENSION OF THE
NAM SEEMS TO INDICATE. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WILL BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING. FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TO GET BY WITH VCTS AND SHOWERS ON STATION. BUT SECOND
DISTURBANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MORE
COVERAGE SO PLACED -TSRA IN THE TAF BODY THEN. CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON STATION AND/OR IN VICINITY BEYOND THIS
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 3-7 KT RANGE.

JAB

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  90  75  88  71 /  30  40  70  90
MKL  87  71  87  69 /  20  40  70  90
JBR  88  72  87  69 /  40  40  80  50
TUP  90  71  90  72 /  20  30  60  80

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$