000
FXUS64 KMEG 202024
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...GENERALLY
3000-4000 FT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS BECOME SCT AFTER
SUNSET...BUT ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TOWARD
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOMORROW...BUT NOT LIKELY MAKE IT TO MEM...MKL...OR TUP BEFORE
18Z. WILL CARRY VCTS AT JBR AFTER 11Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS...STRONGEST AT JBR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  88  70  83 /  10  30  80  50
MKL  71  85  69  82 /  10  30  70  50
JBR  70  84  66  82 /  40  60  80  30
TUP  70  88  69  82 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$