000
FXUS64 KMEG 170903
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A
WET...OCCASIONALLY STORMY...WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME. A TURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2800
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE AS STRONG
OF A SHORT WAVE AS THEY DID IN EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO BEING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH MS. BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS AND A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AR AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
WITH SUMMER HEAT RETURNING ALONG WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ONLY ONE STORM
COMPLEX IS OF CONCERN ON THE RADAR...IT MAY IMPACT MEM BETWEEN 09
AND 11Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL -1 STAY TOGETHER...AND
-2 MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK.  IT IT DOES AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR
TO IFR VIS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPORARY GUSTY WINDS...MOST
LIKELY FROM THE WEST. REMOVED MENTION OF TS AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL REDUCE
VIS AND MAY RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  88  72  86  71 /  70  70  60  10
MKL  87  69  84  67 /  70  70  60  10
JBR  88  70  87  69 /  70  70  40  10
TUP  88  72  86  70 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$