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000
FXUS65 KREV 160347 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
845 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO
EXPIRE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PYRAMID. WINDS ON ANAHO ISLAND
GUSTING TO 25 MPH BUT WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN CA THIS EVENING ARE AT THE
VERY LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM COMING IN FOR TOMORROW. NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN HAVING PRECIP BLOSSOM AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO WINNEMUCCA
LINE. SHOULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY, SHOWERY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW.

CS


&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE JET
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAKES THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PUSH ACROSS RENO-CARSON-TAHOE DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER JET AND MOISTURE PLUME OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION OF SNOW THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH
POSSIBLE IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES. HIGHS TO DROP 15 TO 20
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 7500 TO 8000 FEET TOMORROW, WITH
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 TO 8500 FEET. A
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER SIERRA PASSES FOR
CALIFORNIA HIGHWAYS 4, 88, 89 AND 108 AND NEVADA HIGHWAY 431.

PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND JET
FORCING PASS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES INTO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. BY FRIDAY, COOLING ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SECOND JET SEGMENT FORECAST TO REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH WILL ADD ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

PATTERN WILL TURN DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 135
WEST LONGITUDE. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WITH 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WILL RISE TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRANSITS OVERHEAD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BULK OF MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SERVE TO BRING SLIGHT COOLING
TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS SOME WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
HINT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS TOO MUCH WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN NEVADA OR THE SIERRA FOR CONVECTION.

ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW AVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS AND A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRY FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT
EEKING INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/MODEST CONVECTION SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

ONE OTHER THING OF MINOR INTEREST IS SNOW LEVELS OVER FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WEDNESDAY. THEY COULD FALL BELOW 6000 FEET
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE
COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.
SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM HAS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET) TO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN
NEVADA ON THURSDAY.

THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL MEAN SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN
THE SIERRA AND OUT INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
PYRAMID LAKE TO WINNEMUCCA LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND.

WIND-WISE THROUGH THURSDAY, GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING WILL LESSEN THURSDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE REDUCES WIND
POTENTIAL. OVER HIGHER RIDGES, WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN 40-50 KTS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MEAN TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
RIDGES. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)