000
FXUS65 KREV 220949
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
249 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WEAKENS. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM WERE TO BUMP UP WINDS THURSDAY
(AND LESS SO FRIDAY) AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BLOCKED
BY A MID-CONTINENTAL RIDGE. CURRENTLY, A RATHER STOUT COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOWER
VALLEYS WITH COLDER VALLEYS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING OR A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLKS
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY, A NOTABLE UPPER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. FURTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS ARE
UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY) AS A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS
BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS NORTH
WITH JUST A RESIDUAL BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE REGION. WITH THE LOW
PULLING AWAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH A RATHER DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, ALL SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE WEEKEND AND ARE
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BAGGY TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. A GENERAL LIGHT AFTERNOON WEST WIND IS
EXPECTED AS WELL. REGARDING PRECIP, IT LOOKS DRY SAT WITH LITTLE
FORCING, BUT A DECENT SHORT WAVE IS SET TO ARRIVE SUNDAY THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. THE GFS
BRINGS SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EC, BUT THE GOING
FORECAST APPEARS A REASONABLE BLEND SO MADE NO CHANGES HERE.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT MON/TUE MADE A FEW CHANGES. BOTH THE
EC/GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. OF NOTE WITH
THAT NEXT TROUGH IS THAT A STRONG JET STREAM, MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER, WILL SET UP IN THE EAST PACIFIC. AT LEAST THE FIRST WAVE
WOULD BE WEAK FOR LATE TUESDAY IT APPEARS. DID DRY OUT MONDAY SINCE
THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST CA/NW NV FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE NEXT TROUGH. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OF
NOTE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVING WED OR THU DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BCMG NORTH AT 10-15 KTS TODAY
AREAWIDE. STILL SOME WEST WINDS NR KMMH GUSTING TO 30 KTS UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THEN BECOMING NORTH THERE. WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THEN PICK UP AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH PK
GUSTS 20-25 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS PSBL THU AFTERNOON NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER AS WELL. WALLMANN
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)