Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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075 FGUS71 KBOX 041855 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-061900- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 155 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2016 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES... JANUARY 2016 BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY IN MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PAST THREE MONTHS COMBINED WERE ANOMALOUSLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND WORCESTER ALL EXPERIENCED THEIR WARMEST NOVEMBER TO JANUARY COMBINATION ON RECORD. HARTFORD EXPERIENCED ITS SECOND WARMEST NOVEMBER TO JANUARY COMBINATION ON RECORD. JANUARY 2016 LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WAS ONLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 1.75 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS MUCH OF EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...HIGHER PRECIPITATION OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES FELL...WHICH WAS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT AN INCH BELOW NORMAL. CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS HAD THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THAT AREA. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... AS OF FEBRUARY 4...THE GROUND WAS BARE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG FAR NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES HAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS NEGLIGIBLE. THE LACK OF SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK RIVERS INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WAS ALSO BELOW NORMAL. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE RUNNING AT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY...RIVER ICE ACROSS THE REGION HAS NOT HAD MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO FORM AND THICKEN. AS OF THIS MORNING...MOST RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT AREAS WERE FLOWING FREE OF ICE...A RARITY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...TEMPERATURES DURING FEBRUARY 11 TO 17 ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RIVER ICE TO REFORM OR THICKEN SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THIS ICE WOULD LIKELY STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THICKNESS FOR MID FEBRUARY. ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY... THE NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP FROM 31 JANUARY 2016 SHOWED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT. EXAMINING GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) MOST GROUND WATER LEVELS WERE REPORTED TO BE AT NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL BRING RAIN...THEN SNOW...TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REGARDING THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT...PLEASE GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE FOR UPDATES: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOX/WINTER. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAINFALL TO OUR AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...FROM FEBRUARY 11 TO 17...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD. ...SUMMARY... BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THERE WAS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND AS OF FEBRUARY 4...WHICH WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPCOMING SYSTEMS COULD CREATE A NEW SNOW PACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOIL MOISTURE NEAR NORMAL. GROUND WATER LEVELS WERE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. RIVER ICE HAD A LATE START THIS SEASON. RIVER ICE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FORM AND THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... HOWEVER THE RIVER ICE IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MID FEBRUARY. KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS...THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18. $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON

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