Issued by NWS Boston, MA
000 FGUS71 KBOX 051905 ESFBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-191915- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 205 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA DURING JANUARY THROUGH APRIL. THESE OUTLOOKS PERTAIN TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND... AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. THE SHORT TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT...AS WELL AS ICE JAMS...IS BELOW NORMAL. THE LONGER TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS NEAR NORMAL...AND THE LONG TERM ICE JAM FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR INTERIOR IS NEAR NORMAL. ...PRECIPITATION... JANUARY PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WAS NEAR NORMAL TO JUST OVER AN INCH BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER TOTALS INCLUDED 4.51 INCHES IN HIGHHAM...4.05 INCHES IN CHATHAM...AND 4.21 INCHES IN LOWELL. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS DRIVEN BY 2 EVENTS INCLUDING A STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE AREA DURING JANUARY 17 TO 18...AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY 25. ...SOIL CONDITIONS... SOIL MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TOPSOIL IS ALSO FROZEN...MAKING THE GROUND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF. IN NORTON MA...A COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED THE FROST DEPTH TO BE ABOUT 14 INCHES. ...RIVER LEVELS AND RIVER ICE... RIVERS HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL LEVELS. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MUCH OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXISTING ICE RAN OUT DURING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOWMELT EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY 25. HOWEVER THIS ICE IS REFORMING. CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ICE FORMATION...BUT THE LONG TERM RISK RELATED TO ANY ICE JAM FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. ...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID CONTENT... SNOW DEPTH WAS 3 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SNOW DEPTH WAS MAINLY 6 INCHES OR LESS...THOUGH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES SNOW DEPTHS WERE 6 TO 12 INCHES. THIS WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS MAINLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES...EXCEPT 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SNOW DEPTH OVER CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGED FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WAS ALSO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS 0.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS. ...FORECAST... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT DRY CONDITIONS MAY FINISH OFF THE WORKWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...THOUGH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL MORE IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...SOMEWHAT WARMER AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 12 TO 18 FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...SUMMARY... THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST INDICATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SNOWPACK IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...SOIL MOISTURE IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THOUGH THE GROUND IS FROZEN. RIVER LEVELS HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE LONGER TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH OF THE RIVER ICE FLUSHED OUT EARLY LAST WEEK...HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWING RIVER ICE TO REFORM. CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ICE FORMATION...BUT THE LONG TERM RISK RELATED TO ANY ICE JAM FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING DURING THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING DURING ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE A BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON ISSUES DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOODING...OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS PRODUCT CAN BE ACCESSED AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON...LOOK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE FOR HAZARDOUS OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 19. $$ NMB $$
