Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FGUS71 KBOX 201821 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-NHC005-011-RIC001-003-005-007-009-211415- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 220 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 ...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THE LONG TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK IN THE HEAD WATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER... ...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2014 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES... MARCH 2014 HAS SEEN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 19TH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE 1.00 TO 2.50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF MARCH 1ST THROUGH THE 19TH. MARCH SO FAR HAS ALSO SEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THE 19TH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN RANGING BETWEEN 6 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO HARTFORD CONNECTICUT...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND. ACROSS THE REST OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SNOW DEPTHS ARE 10 INCHES OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW REMAINS ABOVE 1000 FEET. PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEPTHS. SNOW DEPTHS FOR LATE MARCH ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH OF WATER IS CONTAINED IN THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO HARTFORD CONNECTICUT. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES THE NORM ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS...MUCH LIKE SNOW DEPTHS...ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF WINTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... RIVER FLOWS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RIVER ICE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAD CONTINUED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LOCATIONS WHERE RIVER ICE LINGERED OVER NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...TRIBUTARY RIVERS AND SMALL STREAM CONDITIONS RANGED FROM OPEN TO COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...SMALL RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS VARIED...SOME WERE WIDE OPEN AND OTHERS ARE PARTIALLY ICE COVERED. RIVER ICE IS LESS OF AN ISSUE TOWARDS THE COASTLINE...INCLUDING RHODE ISLAND...AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE MOST RIVERS ARE NOW ICE FREE. IN SUMMARY...RIVER ICE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN EXTENT AND THICKNESS ACROSS SOME STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... DUE TO ALL THE COLD WEATHER AND LIMITED RUNOFF OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS...SOIL MOISTURE STATES HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS AS OF 17 MARCH 2014 SHOWED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE STATES IN PLACE ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING OUT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AFTER TODAY THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 27 TO APRIL 2 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...SUMMARY... BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE...THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE NEAR TERM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAIN STEM CONNECTICUT RIVER...WHERE THE LONGER TERM FLOOD THREAT IS ABOVE NORMAL LARGELY DUE TO SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. RIVER FLOWS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. THE SNOW PACK FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXCEPT SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER THAN NORMAL WITH AN ABOVE NORMAL WATER CONTENT. AFTER TODAY A LARGE PRECIPITATION MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM A SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIVER ICE COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING BUT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...FROM WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING EACH DAY WILL HELP TO DETERIORATE SOME OF THE ICE. BUT UNTIL THE ICE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR...THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING WOULD OCCUR IF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP CONCURRENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT. KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK SECTION ON THE TOP LEFT. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY APRIL 03 2014. $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON

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