Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 301858 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 257 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 ...VALID 18Z TUE SEP 30 2014 - 00Z THU OCT 02 2014... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N DMO 10 ESE OJC 20 S FOE 30 N EMP 10 WSW MHK 35 N MHK RDK 20 N CIN 25 SSE MCW 10 E AMW 15 SSE DSM 10 SSE CNC 25 NW IRK 40 SE IRK 20 N DMO. NORTHEAST KS---NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IA CONCERNS FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD WILL BE FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE SLOW MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL REMAIN 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN THIS PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES ARW---NMM AND NSSL WRF WERE FAVORED WHICH SHOWED MAX PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS REGIONS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO---WITH LESSER TOTALS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE HI RES RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AXIS ALONG THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA---THE PERSISTENT INFLOW INTO THIS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO---POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOWER. EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AN AXIS OF 1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO---CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ENHANCING CONVECTION MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA---WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGIONS BOTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS. ORAVEC $$

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