Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 220123 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 823 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 ...VALID 03Z SAT NOV 22 2014 - 00Z SUN NOV 23 2014... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... ...CENTRAL TX NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OK... A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE UNFOLDING OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD..AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN UP THRU EASTERN TX INTO AR ON A MODEST 20KTS OR SO OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME INCREASE IN PWS..WITH THESE RAINS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME..AN IMPROVING HEIGHT FALL REGIME..A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER PWS INTO THE REGION..AND A SOMEWHAT IMPROVING UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS..WILL SUPPORT THE INCREASING RAINFALL POTENTIAL. IN GENERAL..THE MODEL QPFS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT..WITH ALL INDICATING A RAINFALL MAXIMUM VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX UP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK. THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY..WITH SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SEVERAL HOURS POSSIBLE AND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 2-3+ INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD..BOTH OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF CONCERNS. FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH..SO DIDN`T OUTLOOK AN AREA AT THIS TIME. TERRY $$

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