Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 260751 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 350 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 ...VALID 12Z TUE MAY 26 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 27 2015... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT TODAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING AN AXIS OF HEAVIER (1 TO 2+ INCHES) RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS...ESSENTIALLY FROM NORTHEAST IA...INTO CENTRAL-NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS IS WHERE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED BETWEEN 2 SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS...ONE MORE S-N ORIENTED MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE OTHER MORE W-E ORIENTED LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MUCAPES PEAKING BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY ROBUST THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE TO GO ALONG WITH THE QG SUPPORT IN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY... POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SW-NE AXIS MAXIMUM 850-500 MB DEFORMATION. ALL OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOW ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2.5-3 INCHES...THE BULK OF WHICH WOULD FALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (AGAIN COINCIDING TO PEAK DIURNAL INSTBY). GIVEN THE RELATIVE LOW FFG OVER THIS AREA...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES LATER TODAY. ...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM NEW ORLEANS EAST TOWARD PENSACOLA...GIVEN THE ONGOING (ALBEIT WEAKENING) MCS EARLY AND WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE (PWS NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG). BY AFTERNOON...THE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER OVER THIS REGION...HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE LOWER...SUPPORTIVE OF MORE AIRMASS/PULSE TYPE STORMS WITHOUT THE ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITH THE MCS THIS MORNING. HURLEY $$

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