Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 180131 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 930 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 ...VALID 03Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 00Z SAT APR 19 2014... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE AAF 80 SSW PAM 15 ENE KVOA 35 N KVKY BIX 20 N MOB 20 ESE GZH 10 WNW 11J 20 E ABY 10 SSW AMG 20 WSW BQK 20 N NRB 15 NW SGJ 30 E GNV 10 WNW OCF 40 S CTY 55 SE AAF. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL---MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO---WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING ENHANCING CONVECTION CONTINUING OFF THE LA COAST. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE DOWNSTREAM PUSH OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ASHORE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SPEED AT WHICH RAIN PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. AT THE MOMENT---WPC LEANED TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF WHICH WAS IN BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM. IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY---THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH--RAISING PW VALUES TO 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS---EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE---NORTH FL AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST. THE INCREASING PWS AND STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD THRU THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD..WITH SHORT TERM TOTALS OF 1-2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"+. TERRY $$

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