Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 221307 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 906 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...VALID 15Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 23 2014... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHB 80 SE RKD 95 SSE RKD 95 ENE PVC 20 E PVC 15 NE PYM 15 ESE MQE BOS BED 10 S AFN 10 WSW AFN EEN 15 SSE VSF 10 E VSF 10 E LEB 20 NE 1P1 15 ENE MWN 30 ENE BML 20 N WVL 15 SSE BGR 25 SE BHB. SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HQM 35 NW HQM 25 SSE UIL 25 ESE UIL 20 S CLM 30 SSE CLM 20 NNW SHN 10 NW SHN 15 WSW SHN 20 E HQM 20 ESE HQM 25 W TDO 25 WNW KLS 20 E AST 20 ESE AST 30 W SPB 20 ENE S47 20 WNW MMV 30 W SLE 20 ENE ONP 20 ESE ONP 20 WNW EUG 15 WNW EUG 10 WNW EUG 20 ESE CVO 20 SE SLE 15 E SLE 30 ESE UAO 45 S CZK 45 NW RDM 35 WNW RDM 35 WSW RDM 50 SW RDM 60 SW RDM 55 ENE RBG 35 E RBG 20 E RBG 15 ENE RBG 10 WSW RBG 25 NW SXT 30 SW SXT 25 ENE CEC 20 SE CEC 20 SSW CEC 25 WSW CEC 35 WNW CEC 50 NW CEC 45 NW OTH 20 W HQM. ...WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTAL RANGES INTO THE OREGON CASCADES... LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF ISSUES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WA/OR COASTAL RANGES INTO THE OR CASCADES WHERE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AS NOTED IN THE LATEST GOES-SOUNDER PWAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO CROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS AIMING INTO THE COASTAL RANGES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS GRADUALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHWEST CA COASTAL RANGES BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. PERSISTENT AND STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 50 TO 55 KTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINS AND ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SET-UP...AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESSIVE OF 5 INCHES. ...NEW ENGLAND... THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE SWINGING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC NORTH UP INTO COASTAL AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOCUSES THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MA/NH AND SOUTHERN ME...WHERE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 50 KTS IS PROGGED TO SET UP TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS. ORRISON $$

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