Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 270602 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 202 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 ...VALID 06Z FRI MAR 27 2015 - 12Z SAT MAR 28 2015... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... ...FLORIDA... THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. THE WPC FORECAST PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SOUTH OF INTERSATTE 4...TOWARD FORT MEYERS TO NEAR MELBOURNE. THIS WOULD BE MOST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SUGGESTING BRIEF INTENSE RAIN RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME. THIS MAY PRODUCE STANDING WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THE REGION HAS BEEN DRY IN RECENT WEEKS...HOWEVER...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING HIGH. WITH MODERATE FORCING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...THE ODDS OF REPEAT CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE APPEARS LOW. NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED. BURKE $$

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