Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 241334 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 933 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 ...VALID 15Z SUN JUL 24 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 25 2016... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW DNV 10 W TIP 20 SE C75 25 NNE GYY 10 SSE GRR MBS 25 NNW CFS 15 SE P58 25 SE PHN CXHA 15 NW CLE 15 WNW DKK 10 NNE CWWZ 25 NNW ROC 10 S DSV 20 SSW BFD PIT 15 NW ZZV 10 NE DAY 15 SE DNV 10 SW DNV. 15Z UPDATE GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY/NORTHWEST PA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER LOWR MI AS OF 13Z CONTINUES TO TRACK ESEWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONT INTO AXIS OF 1 THSD+ J/KG MLCAPES EXTENDING INTO NRN/CNTL OH. THE WRF NMM HAS A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO DROP SYSTEM SEWD INTO OH /WRN PA THIS MRNG AND AFTN WITH NEW STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UPSTREAM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTN. AT LEAST THROUGH THE MRNG HOURS...E/W TRAINING BANDS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF DVLPG MESO CIRC OVER CNTL LOWER MI COULD INCREASE RUNOFF THREAT THROUGH LOWER MI INTO NRN OH. SOME OF THIS REGION HAS LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/SATURATED SOILS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. DESPITE THE EXPECTED FORWARD PROPAGATION, WHICH COULD BE AT SPEEDS UP TO 35 KTS, HOURLY RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN. THE MORE RELIABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI AND AROUND 2" ACROSS WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THE FLOW IN GENERAL IS DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE WEST, MAKING BANDS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. FRONT RANGE OF CO EWD INTO THE KS/MO ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (PER 21Z SREF MEAN FORECAST FIELDS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25" ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN EASTERN CO DURING DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY. THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3"+. HOURLY RAIN RATES ACROSS EASTERN CO COULD REACH/EXCEED 2", WHICH WOULD EXCEED THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEN IN POCKETS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WHAT KEEPS THIS AREA A SEE TEXT RATHER THAN A SLIGHT RISK IS THE POTENTIALLY SMALL SIZE OF IMPACT AND SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST CO THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. BELIEVE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO THAN NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF ISOLD SMALL SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DVLP EWD ACRS KS INTO MO AS WEAK IMPULSES..SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED RIDING EWD OUT ACRS CO/KS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS AND INTERACTING WITH INCREASING PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY EXPECTED TO STALL ACRS SRN KS. WEAK BUT CONVERGENT 85H FLOW WITH PWS APCHG 2 INCHES ACRS KS/WRN MO WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALLER SCALE TRAINING BANDS WITH SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES SULLIVAN/ROTH $$

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