Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS30 KWBC 280826 QPFERD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 425 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 ...VALID 12Z TUE MAR 28 2017 - 12Z WED MAR 29 2017... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE JSV 30 WNW DEQ 10 S SLR 15 WNW CRS 15 ESE ACT 10 WNW GTU 15 NNW T82 35 SE SJT 30 NNE SJT 45 NNE SWW CDS 10 S PPA 20 N DUX 15 N CAO 15 SE TAD 35 S PUB PUB 25 E COS LIC 10 WNW ITR 55 ESE GLD 25 SSE HLC 25 NW SLN 30 W EMP PPF 20 SW GMJ 20 NNE JSV. SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MLC 20 WNW SLR 10 NNW HQZ 10 WSW AFW 10 W MWL 40 NNW 7F9 30 NE ABI 45 SSW F05 25 NE CDS 30 WSW CSM 15 NNE CSM 25 SE JWG SWO TUL 10 W MKO 30 SE MLC. ...S-CENTRAL PLAINS... IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT STRONG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY AS IT REACHES THE ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THE MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS STEADILY INTO THE S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER DAY1. THE ENSUING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO AN ELONGATED STRIPE OF MOD-HVY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND EVOLVING/EXPANDING CCB/DEFORMATION AND DEEPENING TROWAL. LEAD POTENT LLJ MOISTURE INFLOW UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TRANSLATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND POTENTIALLY PROGRESSIVE WITH MESO COLD POOL DEVELOPMENTS...BUT DEEPEST AND MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWS UP TO 1.5") AND HEIGHT FALLS/INSTABILITY SEEMS TO COMBINE/FOCUS MOST OVER S-CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX...ESPECIALLY WITH CELL MERGERS. WPC PROGS HAVE TRENDED HEAVIEST QPF UPWARDS TO 3-5" LOCALLY THERE...WITH MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS WRAPPED UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE SUPPORTED NOW BY WELL CLUSTERED 00 UTC ARW/NNMB/WRF NSSL/NAM CONEST GUIDANCE AND FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT SPC SEVERE THREAT AREAS. SCHICHTEL $$

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