Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS11 KWBC 252003 QPFHSD PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 403 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 VALID 00Z SUN APR 26 2015 - 00Z WED APR 29 2015 DAYS 1 AND 2... ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... AN ON-GOING PERIOD OF UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY MTN SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SRN ROCKIES. WHAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE INCREASING OVER PARTS OF CO AND FAR NORTHERN NM IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. DEEP LAYERED LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A GOOD BET FOR MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SNOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT INTO THE FOOTHILLS. OF SOME NOTE...THOUGH...WAS THAT THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE. THUS WE DID NOT PUT A GREAT DEAL OF FAITH IN THE WAY THE 12Z MODEL CYCLES WENT SOMEWHAT COOLER COMPARED WITH THE 25/00Z MODELS. THE BEST SIGNAL IS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW REMAINED CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 5500 FT OR 6000 FT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. DAY 3... THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. BANN $$

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