Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS11 KWBC 181937 QPFHSD PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 336 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 VALID 00Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 22 2014 ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH THE PAC NW ON SAT WILL HELP LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS AND ALLOW THE SEMI-PERSISTENT MODEST ONSHORE COMPONENT TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN WA CASCADES. THE MOST OPPORTUNE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR LOW TO MDT PROBS OF 4 INCHES. ...NERN MN... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH A DYNAMIC UPPER JET STREAK WILL TRACK ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF MIXED FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS NRN/NERN MN. MODEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SUFFICIENT FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN... AS A SHIELD OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP OVERRUNS INTO THE REGION. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR A LOW PROB OF 4 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND .25 INCH ICING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HRS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ON DAYS 2 AND 3. MUSHER $$

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