Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS11 KWBC 010650 QPFHSD PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 249 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014 VALID 12Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 DAY 1... ...WYOMING AND COLORADO ROCKIES... AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE COMBINING ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AND OROGRAPHY. FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL FROM 9000/10000 FEET TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF .5 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN RANGES OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. AS A RESULT...THE HIGHEST PEAKS HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ON DAY 1. DAYS 2 AND 3... A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE INTERACTION ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...ON DAYS 2 AND 3...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW IN THE ROCKIES ON DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH SEPARATE UPPER JETS/TROUGHS MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE STILL MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 4 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ON ALL 3 DAYS. KOCIN $$

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