Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FOUS11 KWBC 072111 QPFHSD PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 410 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016 VALID 00Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 00Z THU FEB 11 2016 NEW ENGLAND... LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE AUTOMATED PROBABILITIES WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE MORE PREFERRED SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE THAT IS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00-12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLES... WITH MOST OF THE SREF MEMBERS CONSIDERED TOO FAR WEST AND THEREFORE HEAVY WITH THEIR SNOW TOO FAR INLAND. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. GREAT LAKES... MODELS MORE SO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THAT INCLUDE THE NAM AND SREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW EVENT EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO SHOW TOO MUCH WEAKENING IN ANY LINGERING SNOW BANDS PERHAPS DUE TO INSUFFICIENT RESOLUTION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS...THE DETERMINISTIC SNOW TOTALS AND RESULTING PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. APPRECIATION GOES OUT TO THE GRAND RAPIDS WFO FOR PROVIDING FURTHER INSIGHT INTO THE EVENT. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC... A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL STRONGLY PREFERRED FOR THE ANTICIPATED SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM CONUS NEST ALONG WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS APPROACH ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS LIKELY TOO COLD BELOW 700 MB. THE RESULTING PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED AND INITIALLY WEIGHTED ABOUT 50 PERCENT TOWARD THE SREF MEMBERS WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGES TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERRED CONSENSUS AND ANTICIPATED WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE AXIS TO EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW JERSEY WITHIN A TROWEL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. JAMES $$

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