Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
000 FOUS11 KWBC 172317 QPFHSD PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 630 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 VALID 00Z MON MAY 18 2015 - 00Z THU MAY 21 2015 DAYS 1 TO 3... ...NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE CCB/TROWAL ALONG THE ROBUST MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IS GETTING A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM THE LFQ AND RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA RESPECTIVELY. THE INCREASING CAA WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COUPLE WITH FAVORABLE COLUMN (DIABATIC) COOLING PER THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION RATES TO ALLOW FOR FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION FROM R OR R/S OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY GETTING A BOOST CLOSER TO AND AFTER SUNSET (PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5 KFT). PROBABILITIES FOR 4+ INCHES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ND...WHERE UPWARDS OF 5-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT DAYS 1-3. HURLEY $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.