Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS04 KWBC 291836 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 235 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1 SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST DAY 1 ALONG AND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THIS AXIS WHERE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE THE UVVS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH DETAILS IN THIS AXIS---WITH EACH MODEL SHOWING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AXES OF THE MAX PRECIP AMOUNTS---BUT MUCH HIGHER FOR POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH A BROAD MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK CONTINUED. THE GREATEST THREATS FOR PRECIP TOTALS EXCEEDING FFG VALUES ARE FROM WEST TX/EASTERN NM INTO CENTRAL KS---FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST MO WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOWEST. UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS FOLLOWED WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED. A MARGINAL RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES MAINTAINED FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. WESTERN GULF COAST THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION INITIALLY ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE TX COAST DAY 1. THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE EASTERLY INFLOW MAX TO THE NORTH OF THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID TO LOWER TX COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. FLORIDA IN THE SHORT TERM---THE TRACK OF T.D. #9 WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUAL NORTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2.5 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL ON THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HI RES MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAX AMOUNTS ALONG BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST COAST---INCLUDING THE KEYS---WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN BETWEEN OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS. FAR EASTERN NC THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF T.D. #8 WILL BRING THE CENTER JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM RELATIVELY SMALL---THE EXPECTED AREA AFFECTED BY ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL---CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. 1-3 INCH STORM TOTALS---WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML 24HR QP VT 31/00Z 0.01 526255 531235 537210 539201 539195 537191 533189 530186 522185 519185 517187 516193 516198 523219 522224 520228 518231 513231 509229 506224 500219 496218 494219 493223 493228 494232 493236 491236 487237 484239 480233 476232 474234 472242 470248 464251 459254 453259 451263 447265 441271 438279 438285 439290 441293 445296 454296 465292 472289 476288 481289 486294 494294 497294 502294 506294 509292 513287 517281 0.01 516730 511718 507708 505704 503702 498699 494697 491695 488696 481698 476699 474701 470703 468705 465712 460725 454737 449748 447753 446761 443793 441809 438815 434823 424833 417835 414837 410838 407840 405845 402850 401855 398860 395866 389879 385887 381893 376906 375914 374923 371938 371946 369952 364962 361968 357972 352975 346978 340981 336982 331981 319977 307969 302958 301952 300945 301940 301935 300927 298921 293906 295886 298880 298872 300865 303857 306857 307854 311848 311842 313838 321832 325826 327820 330816 332809 334800 339795 346785 350780 354773 360763 370743 369736 370727 366723 363717 360713 358711 354712 346714 339718 319735 311742 307744 303748 297751 289753 282754 276756 268760 263764 254772 245781 237790 231798 227806 224811 223818 221831 221847 222857 223866 226885 229898 231904 234908 238907 242904 248896 250893 253897 256903 257907 258910 258916 257919 255937 255941 252943 247946 242949 239954 231967 230997 230003 234007 241012 245016 250018 261020 268026 277032 277036 270035 261030 252026 241022 239022 234025 228028 225052 228058 233063 236070 241074 245079 250083 255089 262092 267092 274094 279095 284097 292100 298101 305102 307091 308087 313086 321087 325088 329090 331094 334096 336099 338100 340093 341082 342077 344072 344067 349067 355069 358068 361069 367074 370082 373088 379089 383088 386087 390084 389082 390078 392080 395082 397082 408071 412071 414069 416067 416062 411056 409054 404053 400051 398048 398044 402028 0.01 402028 409019 413015 417008 422996 426977 428971 432966 435964 438964 445966 450967 454964 459959 464952 469942 476925 481914 487897 488892 490883 490877 491871 491861 492853 492843 495835 497825 497818 499809 502808 505805 510800 516788 515764 516748 515737 516730 0.01 393757 392750 391743 387742 384745 384747 383752 384756 383761 380775 380780 379786 377792 372797 359812 353821 349826 347831 346836 348840 350842 353841 357837 359840 357843 359843 366834 366830 369829 372826 379816 382811 384807 391797 394793 395791 395787 392780 391771 393757 0.25 521266 522260 521255 516246 510239 503237 500239 498244 494244 488242 486245 484249 476255 463261 457266 453269 451274 451279 455283 457284 463284 469283 479283 486283 497288 504288 508287 512284 516277 521266 0.25 489760 488757 484756 481756 478759 476767 473775 470781 469784 468791 472798 475799 478795 480787 482779 486770 489762 489760 0.25 470888 471882 471875 469870 466870 462876 460886 459896 457906 455913 456917 460917 463909 466900 468893 470888 0.25 436878 435876 432877 428881 422888 418895 413901 408908 401911 398914 396919 394926 393936 385951 381961 379970 374978 368985 313015 308019 301021 299023 298029 296038 291045 287047 283048 264043 255041 249040 239038 235037 232039 231041 230046 231052 232056 238061 245067 270083 277088 281089 287089 295088 299085 299080 299073 304069 311064 318061 325058 334055 342052 350050 356053 362054 370051 372048 374046 372044 364028 365024 368020 374013 380011 387011 392009 395007 399001 411988 415980 419969 420960 421951 423940 423933 422930 419919 421912 422907 426897 430889 434883 436878 0.25 364742 364735 362731 359726 354724 348724 342727 334735 329742 325753 320764 317768 310769 301768 289767 282767 275769 264774 255779 248786 242795 236806 231826 228838 227852 227863 228868 231872 237875 244875 249871 252867 258860 266854 274846 276841 281837 286835 288833 285829 289826 295824 300823 305826 307827 310826 316820 320810 323797 324790 327783 343773 351764 359756 363749 364742 0.25 294987 295983 294979 293970 293962 293952 293943 288937 284935 280934 276935 270945 263958 260962 258970 260976 264981 270984 273990 282998 288997 292991 294987 0.50 518268 520263 519258 514248 510243 505241 503244 500253 497252 493248 488249 482255 470262 464265 458272 457274 459277 463280 467279 474279 483280 489280 499284 506284 509283 512279 516274 518268 0.50 410970 412960 412953 411947 408938 408931 407925 403926 402929 399938 396947 391956 376988 373992 366996 359000 356002 351004 336008 329011 323017 314027 309034 308040 307045 312049 320052 325052 330051 338048 344046 347044 348039 345037 344033 345028 348024 358014 362007 369002 375999 383997 390994 398988 405982 409975 410970 0.50 361745 361740 360735 355730 351730 346731 339735 335740 332746 331751 332757 335765 338766 343765 350760 355756 359749 361745 0.50 316800 316792 313784 309779 302774 297773 290772 282772 274774 261779 255783 250788 246792 243798 240805 237812 234825 232832 231840 230855 230861 231864 234867 237868 242867 247862 252858 259854 267846 276834 279830 282823 285817 287813 291814 302818 308821 314817 316809 316800 0.50 297061 296056 287054 280053 274050 269047 264046 260047 243045 238046 235048 235053 239057 244062 254069 265075 275082 279084 283084 287083 290082 292079 290077 291073 293070 296065 297061 0.50 289956 288947 286945 281945 278946 276948 272955 268962 267970 267974 270977 277980 281980 284977 287970 288960 289956 1.00 517265 517259 514254 511249 506247 503260 499258 495254 490252 487256 480262 476266 476271 480273 487275 497277 502278 505276 514271 517265 1.00 356746 356741 355739 353737 349737 345737 342739 340741 339744 338747 339751 341753 344754 346755 349755 352753 354750 355748 356746 1.00 311809 311801 309794 306787 301782 296780 290778 283778 273780 263784 256788 251792 248796 244802 240815 236846 235851 236856 238858 244856 249851 257844 268836 271832 274826 272822 266817 258811 257806 259803 266800 272801 278803 291808 302812 309813 311809 1.00 281063 281061 278059 276057 274056 272054 268053 265054 264056 263060 264063 266064 269065 273066 277066 279065 281063 1.50 515267 516262 515259 513257 512255 509251 508251 507253 507256 507261 508264 510267 511268 513269 515267 1.50 503273 504270 503266 501262 498259 495256 491255 488259 486264 485267 487271 492274 497274 500274 503273 1.50 306806 304795 302791 299787 291784 283783 274785 265790 264794 268796 275799 286800 292803 296805 302806 306806 1.50 270828 268823 265819 262817 257815 253812 251810 252806 257798 256795 251796 248800 247806 243815 242819 244825 245831 248837 252837 257836 262834 267831 270828 2.00 513266 515264 514261 513259 511258 510257 509259 509261 510262 510264 512265 513266 513266 2.00 501269 501268 501267 500265 500264 499263 497261 496260 496259 494258 493258 492258 492261 492263 493266 493267 495268 496269 498271 499271 501270 501269 $$

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