Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS04 KWBC 300659 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 30/1200 UTC THRU JUL 31/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... WET PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE EAST AND EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH A BROAD SHIELD OF PCPN. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS HAS STARTED TO FLOURISH OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS RESULTING IN INCREASING VORTICITY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE MODEL RUNS FROM THE DAY SHIFT HAD BEEN ADVERTISING THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WOULD FORM OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS...THAT LOOKS ON TRACK. AS A RESULT...AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE EC AND GFS BOTH ADVERTISING PW VALUES OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BEING FED BY 35 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN TERMS OF THE MODELS...AGREEMENT WAS PRETTY GOOD IN DEPICTING AN AXIS EXISTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATITUDE WHERE THIS AXIS SETS UP. BASED ON THE TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WPC AXIS WAS ADJUSTED NORTH A BIT WHICH ENDED UP BEING A BETTER FIT WITH THE MODELS. IT DOESNT TAKE LONG BEFORE THE GFS PULLS NORTH AND AHEAD OF THE ECMWF AND IS SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERLY OUTLIER APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...THE GFS AND NAM/NAM PARALLEL BOTH APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT VARIOUS TIMES. THE WPC RAFL AXIS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 29/12Z ECMWF AND SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WAS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. SINCE THESE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD EASILY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AS WAS THE CASE ON TUESDAY. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS HERE. ...FL PENINSULA... CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN STRIPES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. ...GREAT BASIN... THINK THAT ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE AGAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LACKING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS SINCE THE MAIN IMPULSE HAS MOVED EAST. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH STRIPES OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES. BANN GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 31/12Z 0.01 525746 524730 523725 520723 513721 510720 506721 502720 498721 491718 487714 483712 478711 473712 467719 459723 454724 452723 443724 440723 443719 443713 441716 438719 436724 433725 432728 428732 427737 425746 425751 424756 422759 418761 414770 407779 401785 396793 389810 387819 386828 388841 392852 395863 399871 403880 408888 413894 418898 424905 429909 437892 438887 443885 449880 449876 447872 444872 441874 435874 432871 426861 425855 427848 432841 436833 440825 446820 450821 453824 458832 461835 461838 459839 456843 454848 454855 456859 459863 462865 469869 473869 475872 479880 479888 478892 474902 472908 470914 470922 474923 518879 520866 520852 521847 521841 521828 521822 521813 522807 522798 523791 522783 524770 525746 0.01 492142 491137 488133 483127 481124 478126 473125 469127 463123 459122 458119 457115 455112 452110 453107 456103 455100 452098 449095 445094 440091 438088 435089 431088 427085 427077 427071 428065 428058 427053 424044 420035 416028 409022 406015 400001 393986 386970 384963 382951 376926 372918 365912 358906 351902 346903 342905 337910 332915 326919 321922 316928 312937 312945 314950 317958 319963 319969 319981 319987 320990 324999 323012 323026 321030 317032 302032 298038 296045 294053 288060 273070 269071 265069 260064 253059 247054 243053 239054 235057 234061 236065 239068 246072 252076 259082 264085 269090 274094 276097 277102 282109 290111 295111 299109 306106 306102 307096 308089 307085 307081 309079 312076 318076 328090 334095 337098 342099 343094 342089 341081 343071 347068 351068 356070 360072 370074 372077 374082 376087 380088 387093 391093 391099 393105 393109 389111 385111 377115 374118 373123 377121 381117 385115 388114 391117 393119 396120 399123 403123 408119 413118 417120 418124 416130 410137 408140 403139 399137 395138 398146 394145 392141 388139 386136 381135 379137 380142 378146 377152 375154 372154 370156 369161 370169 369172 367169 358163 355167 357171 359181 360186 364190 371195 386206 391208 395208 400207 403205 404200 407199 410200 412203 417204 420202 425204 428207 430212 428216 427221 431223 435223 447220 452221 454219 454216 449216 441211 439207 442203 442200 440195 436189 432186 427184 419190 415191 411191 408182 414162 416158 420158 427158 426155 427151 429150 431152 433154 436158 440161 447165 451163 453160 457151 459146 462143 466152 471155 475152 478149 482147 486147 490145 492142 0.01 391188 391185 391183 390181 389178 387178 385178 384179 383181 384183 385184 386185 387186 388187 389189 391188 0.01 369782 368773 366771 363771 354777 349779 344783 340784 333789 329792 322795 317797 314792 312775 318761 322748 329742 333736 334734 333730 329724 323723 308726 303729 298730 292734 286738 280741 276745 267754 262762 255772 250786 248791 246797 243808 243816 245825 249828 252830 253834 257846 262848 266846 268840 269832 272825 277822 282811 286807 291805 294803 298803 306804 317809 318811 316812 314813 308816 306821 307827 309829 313829 320830 326828 333825 336820 338813 341801 341797 342794 346793 349794 359799 363796 365791 367786 369782 0.25 510843 510833 508826 503816 498812 497810 496804 496794 498788 500780 501773 500764 498757 496753 497745 496740 495735 489731 484731 478732 468737 464741 460746 456752 454757 449761 443764 437765 430767 423770 419775 416778 412784 410789 407800 405807 403814 402822 401827 401837 402843 405848 409851 412847 413840 414833 418825 431809 439799 444796 451795 470785 479792 483796 487801 489805 490810 489813 485816 481818 477822 475830 474838 475846 477852 480858 484861 488863 491866 494868 496865 502861 505856 508850 510843 0.25 437151 438148 437146 435146 434147 434150 434151 436152 437151 0.25 437110 438107 437106 437105 435103 434103 432103 430102 429104 428104 427105 426106 425108 425109 424110 424111 425113 426113 428111 429111 430110 431110 433110 435110 437110 437110 0.25 423131 423129 423127 421128 421129 420131 421132 422131 423131 0.25 420062 421054 420048 415039 412035 405035 399033 395030 393027 394020 392011 385986 379963 371940 366929 362923 354916 351915 347915 342918 336926 332933 329945 329954 329962 329967 330970 333973 336975 339980 348000 350006 353010 358016 373031 378034 378038 370041 366043 360045 353046 352050 355055 358058 363059 366058 371059 375062 385068 389079 396082 397076 403080 406077 409075 410073 412067 417064 420062 0.25 413101 411099 410099 408099 407100 407103 407104 408105 409105 411105 413103 413101 0.25 385198 384197 383195 381194 379193 379192 378191 376190 375189 375188 374189 375191 376192 377194 379196 380197 381197 382198 384198 385198 0.25 301762 299759 295759 292761 290764 286769 276771 270774 265780 261784 257791 257795 254803 253807 254810 260815 266817 271812 280803 287790 295778 298772 301764 301762 0.25 301089 300084 298080 294078 289078 285080 281080 275081 275084 279086 282088 287090 291092 295092 300091 301089 0.25 299097 298096 296095 294096 293098 294099 296099 297099 298097 299097 0.50 499850 500846 499842 496838 493836 489835 484836 481839 480844 480849 482853 485856 489857 494856 497853 499850 0.50 476755 476752 473751 468754 462758 458761 454767 451771 448778 451779 455779 461777 466774 473771 474766 475761 476755 0.50 434780 433778 432776 432778 431781 431782 430783 431784 433783 434780 434780 0.50 434792 433789 429787 425788 422786 419787 416790 412795 411805 410815 411819 412817 416810 418809 422808 428803 432797 434792 0.50 415055 414047 410040 405039 399043 395043 392042 388042 385044 379046 372046 366049 360050 359054 361055 368054 375055 380060 386063 391067 395071 395074 397074 401074 405072 404068 406065 411062 413060 414056 415055 0.50 388018 388011 387006 383991 380980 377966 373955 369943 364934 357924 352921 349921 343923 339927 335936 334943 333952 333960 334966 340976 351995 355005 358009 363014 381026 386023 388018 0.50 295086 295084 294081 293081 292082 290083 289083 289085 290085 292086 293086 295086 0.50 287785 288781 286777 280777 275780 272783 267787 263790 262795 266800 268801 272801 279799 282794 284789 287785 0.50 267806 268804 267802 266802 265803 263804 261805 260806 259807 260807 262808 264809 265808 267806 267806 1.00 408054 408052 408050 406051 407054 408054 1.00 380010 381004 381999 378990 373972 368954 361937 357932 353929 348928 343933 341937 339943 337952 337961 340969 344977 354989 357996 358001 362005 374013 378013 380010 1.50 376001 376993 374983 369967 368959 364951 362944 357937 352933 348934 346936 342954 341960 343969 347975 352981 356986 360994 363999 369003 374006 376001 2.00 373999 373991 371984 368970 365956 359945 357941 352937 348938 347940 345947 345960 346969 349974 357981 363992 366996 371000 373999 3.00 366983 366975 364967 362963 361955 357950 354946 350946 349949 349954 350958 352963 355968 359972 362978 365983 366983 $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.