Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS01 KWBC 230612 PMDSPD SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 212 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 VALID 12Z SAT JUL 23 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 25 2016 ...DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS A WIDE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SURPASS 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 115. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST NUMEROUS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE REGION. RYAN GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP $$

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