Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS01 KWBC 191958 PMDSPD SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 357 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 VALID 00Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 00Z MON SEP 22 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS... ...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST... REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. THIS BOUNTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND/TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE NO REST FOR THE WEARY THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO. A WAVE ON THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL FORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL IGNITE ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATIONS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE LOW WILL TRACK UP TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM GEORGIA TO NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER IT WILL BE QUICK MOVING SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT. COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL SWIFTLY MOVE BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL. FANNING GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV $$

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