Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS01 KWBC 131949 PMDSPD SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 248 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 VALID 00Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 00Z TUE FEB 16 2016 ...THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND... ...MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN STATES... A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ICE STORM WARNINGS AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE DAKOTAS, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THEY REACH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE CASCADES WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1.5 FEET, THE SAWTOOTHS WITH TOTALS UP TO 1 FOOT, AND THE BITTEROOTS, BEARTOOTHS AND TETONS WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL GENERALLY IN MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW. WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPAN FROM TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOCATIONS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM (I.E. SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC) WILL HAVE RAIN. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH (CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY) LIKELY SEE A COMBINATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH SUNDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE DEL-MA-VA AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TO NEW JERSEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A VAST AREA COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS ON THE APPALACHIANS COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 3-DAY ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE COMMON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN MAINE. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1 FOOT. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WINTER SEASON WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS, WITH WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING BELOW -30 DEGREES TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FRIGID WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, AND SUBZERO LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAMPBELL GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV $$

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