Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS01 KWBC 272009 PMDSPD SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 409 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 VALID 00Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 00Z SUN AUG 30 2015 ...HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE MIDWEST... ...COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WARMTH AND RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...THE FIRST REAL AUTUMNAL COOL SURGE CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND WILL HELP BRING RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY YIELDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, NORTHERN IOWA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER IN THE EAST UNDER A BUBBLE OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTO FLORIDA. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STILL YIELD MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAINS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST, A LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE CHARACTERISTIC OF AUTUMN IS ALREADY GEARING UP OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN CANADA AS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CANADIAN WEST COAST. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT HEAD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING GENERAL RAINS TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. KOCIN GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV $$

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