Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FGUS75 KABQ 141951
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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
151 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017

...APRIL 2017 NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

As of April 14, 2017 the USGS measured 14 day streamflow for
most of the region remains near normal for this time of year.
Lower than normal streamflows can be found at some locations,
either due to regulation changes or longer term deficits in
precipitation and soil moisture.

Recent soil moisture data from the NASA SPoRT LIS model continues
to show soil moisture deficits over most of eastern New Mexico
and along the Rio Grande Valley from Albuquerque south. Some of
these deficits are primarily in the top soil as a result of
drought conditions that developed in March while other deficits
(mainly in the mid to lower levels of the soil column) are long
term deficits.


...PRECIPITATION...

March 2017 was an exceedingly dry month for New Mexico as high
pressure dominated the area for the first three weeks of the month.
The storm track kept precipitation out of most of the state
except for some areas along the Northern Mountains. A pattern
change during the last few days of the month allowed for some
widespread rainfall over much of the state, however many areas
still saw less than 10% of their normal monthly rainfall totals
with some stations reporting zero precipitation for the month.

For the 2016-2017 Water Year, most of the state is running near to
above normal precipitation through April 13th with the highest
totals being west of the Central Mountain Chain. A "boom-bust"
pattern over New Mexico has led to 30-45 day dry periods being
followed by 14-21 day periods of a more active weather pattern.
The eastern third of the state (mainly east-central and southeast
NM) continues to show precipitation values below normal for the
water year.


...SNOWPACK...

As of April 1st, snowpack data from the USDA/National Resource
Conservation Service (NRCS) indicate that the snowpack
(specifically snow water equivalent, or SWE) values for the
northern basins of New Mexico are generally at or above normal
with exceptions of the Pecos, Cimarron, and Jemez River basins.
The above normal temperatures during most of March started
snowmelt on the Jemez Basin while melting some of the snow out of
the already below normal Pecos and Cimarron Basins. Basins in the
southern half of New Mexico are considered melted out as of April
1.

Current SWE values can be found and the NRCS at
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/snotel-wereports.html


NRCS SNOTEL Basin Average Values as of April 1 2017

Basin                                      Snow Water Eqv %       Total
                                                              Precipitation %

Rio Chama River Basin                      141                132
Upper Rio Grande Basin                     121                106
Sangre De Cristo Mountain Range Basins      91                102
Jemez River Basin                           51                100
San Francisco River Basin                    0                106
Gila River Basin                             0                117
Mimbres River Basin                          0                131
Pecos River Basin                           51                 77
San Juan River Headwaters                  118                108
Animas River Basin                         128                117
Cimarron River Basin                        63                 99
Zuni/Bluewater River Basin                   0                146
Rio Hondo Basin                              0                 92


...RESERVOIR SUMMARY...

Most reservoirs in New Mexico have ample storage capacity at this time.
Below is the current reservoir storage in KAF and percent of capacity
for selected reservoirs in New Mexico as of April 1st, 2017. Data
provided by the USDA/NRCS.

Reservoir                Current            Current %
                        Storage KAF         Capacity

Abiquiu Reservoir        122.4               10%
Bluewater Lake           11.3                29%
Brantley Lk nr Carlsbad  34.9                 3%
Caballo Reservoir        77.0                23%
Cochiti Lake             47.7                10%
Conchas Lake             72.3                28%
Costilla Reservoir       MSG                 MSG
Eagle Nest Lake          34.1                43%
El Vado Reservoir        58.6                31%
Elephant Butte Reservoir 312.7               14%
Heron Reservoir          86.7                22%
Lake Avalon              1.7                  4%
Lake Sumner              30.1                30%
Navajo Reservoir         1464.7              86%
Santa Rosa Reservoir     54.6                12%

Total                    2408.8              29%

...STREAMFLOW FORECASTS...

NWS River Forecast Centers, in conjunction with our partners in the
NRCS, USACE, and the USBR, produce seasonal streamflow forecasts
for selected river locations and basins in New Mexico. These
forecasts are based on hydrologic conditions as of the 1st of the
month and may not reflect current trends and forecasts.

As of April 1, most basins impacting New Mexico are expected to
have near or normal runoff volumes through the forecast period due
to the large snowpacks available for runoff. The Pecos and San
Francisco River are expected to have near to below normal
runoff volumes.

Forecasts issued by NWS/West Gulf & Arkansas-Red RFCs

                                FORECAST RUNOFF                      AVERAGE
                                                                      RUNOFF
                                  MOST     REASONABLE   REASONABLE     30YR
                                PROBABLE    MAXIMUM      MINIMUM    1981-2010
    FORECAST           FORECAST        %            %            %
      POINT             PERIOD 1000  30YR   1000  30YR   1000  30YR    1000
                          (*)   AF   AVG.    AF   AVG.    AF   AVG.     AF
                    *(1)APR-SEP
                    *(2)MAR-JUL

Canadian River
Eagle Nest RES
  Rsvr Inflow, NM         (2)    9     85      18  161       4   38     11

Cimarron River
  Cimarron     NM         (2)   13     85      26  165       3   20     15

Conchas RES
  Rsvr Inflow  NM         (2)   25     83      71  237       4   16     30

Rio Grande River
 Otowi Bridge, NM         (2)   920   128    1200  167     675   94    720
 San Marcial, NM          (2)   605   119     820  161     390   76    510

Rio Hondo
 Valdez NM                (2)    19   107     27   147     14    76     18


Rio Pueblo de Taos
 Los Cordovas blo, NM     (2)    29    81     49   136     16    44     36

Embudo Creek
 Dixon                    (2)    42    88     71   148     21    44     48
 El Vado res Inflow, NM   (2)   360   160    450   200    280   124    225
 Chamita NM               (2)   450   144    650   208    300    96    312

Rio Ojo Caliente
 La Madera, NM            (2)    70   156    106   235     40    88     45

Santa Cruz River
 Cundiyo, NM              (2)    16    91     26   142     10    55     18

Pecos River
 Dixon                    (2)    44    77     71   125     24    42     57
 Anton Chico NM           (2)    44    70     88   140     17    27     63
 Santa Rosa Lake Inflow   (2)    34    61     72   129     12    21     56

Gallinas River
 Montezuma     NM         (2)     6    64     13   133      2    22      9

Forecasts issued by NWS/Colorado Basin RFC

                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    235   109    300    255    210    195    215
  Carracas                 Apr-Jul    400   105    500    435    340    325    380
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    760   103   1000    845    660    600    735
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1180   107   1540   1330   1030    950   1100
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1200   109   1560   1340   1010    940   1100

La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     29   126     35     32     25     23     23

Navajo River
  Chromo near Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     69   106     90     84     59     50     65

Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    465   112    625    540    420    355    415

Zuni River
  Black Rock Res           Apr-May   0.05    50   0.08   0.06   0.02   0.00   0.10

Gila River
  Gila                     Apr-May   19.3   117     28     21   19.1   19.0   16.5
  Virden                   Apr-May     24   114     32     27     22     21     21

San Francisco River
  Glenwood                 Apr-May    4.2    58    5.1    4.5    4.1    4.0    7.3


50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.


...DROUGHT...

Widespread abnormally dry conditions exist over most of New Mexico
as a result of the abnormally dry and warm conditions during most
of March. This combination resulted in a flash drought which
rapidly dried the topsoil in many areas. Precipitation the last
week of March helped to ease these conditions over much of the
impacted areas. Drought status for NM is re- evaluated weekly and
can be found at the National Drought Mitigation Center website at
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu.


...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
The 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the
NWS/Climate Prediction Center continue an increased probability
of normal to above normal temperatures with normal to slightly
wetter for most of New Mexico. Please refer to the latest
forecasts for more current weather information.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
The NWS/Climate Prediction Center has ended the La Nina Advisory
and ENSO neutral conditions exist over the Pacific Ocean. Models
guidance is expecting the neutral ENSO conditions to continue for
the spring and into Summer 2017. The current CPC forecast for
April through June 2017 continues the increased likelihood of
warmer temperatures New Mexico. Climate signals that help to
forecast precipitation over the Spring months during an ENSO
Neutral pattern are weak, so equal chances of above, below, and
normal precipitation is expected. These outlooks are issued
monthly with the next outlook to be issued on March 16th. Outlooks
can be found at the NWS/CPC website at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
At this time, the risk of spring flooding remains average for basins
with near to above normal snowpack values and below normal for basins
with below normal values. The only basins of note are the San
Juan and Animas River Basins. Both of these basins have well above
normal snowpack values. While normally flooding does not occur
solely due to spring runoff, minor flooding could be possible if
there is a heavy rainfall event that coincides with peak runoff
flow.

Many factors impact the likelihood of spring flooding, including snow
pack and hydro- meteorological conditions at the time of runoff.
While spring snowmelt related flooding is not usually expected on
most mainstem rivers in New Mexico due to regulation, conditions
will have to be monitored as the season progresses for the
potential of higher than normal peak flows on unregulated rivers.

The NWS Albuquerque Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) is serviced three
river forecast centers: West Gulf RFC (Ft Worth, TX), Arkansas-
Red Basin RFC (Tulsa, OK), and the Colorado River Basin RFC (Salt
Lake City, UT). These RFC`s issue a variety of hydrologic forecast
products during the year. Further products and current
information can be found at the following locations:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc
https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

You can also find additional weather and water products and forecasts
at the NWS Albuquerque website at:

http://www.weather.gov/abq

For questions or comments about this outlook, you can contact Royce
Fontenot, Senior Service Hydrologist, at 505-244-9150 x 228 or
via e-mail at royce.fontenot@noaa.gov|

$$


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