Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FGUS75 KABQ 051635
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NMC001>061-282359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
930 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2010

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO

THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.

THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR EARLY FEBRUARY 2010 RANGES FROM NEAR
NORMAL SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF IN MOST NEW MEXICO RIVER BASINS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF FROM THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE ZUNI...GILA...MIMBRES...AND RIO RUIDOSO BASINS.

FORECASTS FOR THE RIO GRANDE ARE FOR NEAR NORMAL FLOWS INTO COCHITI
LAKE AND ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE. OTHER RIO GRANDE BASIN RESERVOIR
FORECAST INFLOWS RANGE FROM 106 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT EL VADO LAKE
TO 96 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT JEMEZ CANYON RESERVOIR. PECOS RIVER
INFLOW TO SANTA ROSA LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. IN THE SAN
JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR IS EXPECTING 104 PERCENT OF NORMAL
INFLOW...WHILE INFLOW TO CONCHAS LAKE IS FORECAST TO BE 93 PERCENT OF
THE 30 YEAR MEDIAN.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING JANUARY 2010 WAS ABOVE NORMAL
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE STATE STARTING JUST AFTER MID MONTH.

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER 2009 THROUGH JANUARY 2010...RANGED
FROM BELOW NORMAL IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN AS OF FEBRUARY 1 WAS 114 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 85
PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER
CONTENT WAS 108 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 91 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF
FEBRUARY 1 2009.

LOOKING AT HISTORICAL FEBRUARY 1 SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE NEW
MEXICO PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN GOING BACK TO 1995...THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK RANKS AS 5TH BEST OF THE PAST 16 YEARS. IN THE
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...SNOWPACK
WATER CONTENT AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2010 WAS 113 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 87
PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO.

THE SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL AT 10280 FEET...NORTHWEST OF RUIDOSO...SET
A FEBRUARY 1ST RECORD FOR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH 19.8 INCHES OF
WATER CONTENT IN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK. THE PREVIOUS FEBRUARY 1ST
RECORD WAS SET IN 1992 WHEN THE WATER CONTENT WAS 15.2 INCHES. SNOW
MEASUREMENTS AT THE SIERRA BLANCA SITE STARTED IN 1987.

WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS YET TO COME AND
A MODERATE STRENGTH EL NINO ONGOING...THE EARLY PROSPECTS FOR A NEAR
NORMAL TO BETTER THAN NORMAL SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF LOOK GOOD FOR
NEW MEXICO.

EL NINO CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR NEW MEXICO WITH AVERAGE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER AND SPRING PRECIPITATION.

NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN...CANADIAN BASIN...AND PECOS BASIN...BUT NEAR NORMAL AT NAVAJO
LAKE. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE IS 62 PERCENT OF THE 1971 TO
2000 NORMAL AND 90 PERCENT OF LAST YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME. IN
THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 98 PERCENT OF THE
30 YEAR NORMAL...AND 97 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF ONE YEAR AGO.

THIS WATER SUPPLY FORECAST REFLECTS CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2010
AND ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WINTER AND INTO THE
SPRING.

                                         SNOTEL DATA
                              FEBRUARY 1 2010     1971-2000 AVERAGE
                               WATER CONTENT      WATER CONTENT
SNOTEL SITE...                     INCHES           INCHES
CHAMITA                              9.9              6.7
RED RIVER                            5.0              5.0
CUMBRES TRESTLE                     20.9             16.0
WOLF CREEK SUMMIT                   23.5             20.1

$$

EAP