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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KABQ 260851
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Breezy to locally windy conditions today amongst mostly dry
conditions. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms increase
Friday night through Saturday, mainly across northern and western
New Mexico. Windy conditions will prevail across the southern and
eastern portion of the forecast area Saturday afternoon. High
temperatures Saturday will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler. Temperatures
rebound Sunday for most locales with showers favoring the
northern mountains. The warming trend and dry conditions will
continue until Wednesday when showers and thunderstorms reenter
the forecast across eastern New Mexico.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The first system is exiting northeast NM this morning, but another
is on the way.  Westerly winds in the wake of the first system will
remain breezy to windy as strong mixing persists and a 990mb surface
low redevelops over far northeast NM. Winds will certainly not be as
strong as yesterday with weak shortwave ridging overhead and are
expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures will
be a little cooler across the plains today, despite strong
downsloping, in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Nonetheless,
should still be seasonable with most areas within 5 degrees of
normal.

The next storm system will approach the Four Corners tonight. This
system will be stronger with more moisture to work with, hence,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across northwest NM
overnight. As the upper low shifts eastward north of the NM/CO
border, showers and thunderstorms should reach as far east as the
Central Mountain Chain on Saturday. Models are not as robust with
QPF, but some wetting precipitation is likely. Temperatures will
lower enough with this system for snow to fall as low as 7500ft. One
to 4 inches of snow will be possible for portions of the Northern
Mountains, though localized amounts up to 6 inches are possible
across the highest peaks. The cooler temperatures should slow the
snow melt and runoff for at least a day or two.

In addition to the precipitation, winds will also be a concern on
Saturday. The upper level jet rounding the base of the low will
cross south central and southeastern portions of the CWA.  Tonight,
H7 winds around 50kt may necessitate a Wind Advisory for the South
Central Mtns. H7 winds decrease to around 40kts during the day
Saturday, but his combined with a 992mb surface low over southeast
CO will be sufficient for another round of windy conditions across
eastern NM Saturday afternoon. A few Wind Advisories may be needed,
particularly across Chaves, Curry and Roosevelt counties.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The exiting upper low will allow for temperatures to rebound
dramatically for most locales Sunday. The exception will be the
easternmost fringe of NM where a backdoor front will just briefly
grace the state as the low departs. The enhanced lift from the sfc
front and a passing shortwave trough will give rise to showers
and isolated thunderstorms in and around the Sangre de Cristo Mts
Sunday afternoon and evening. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail
on Monday and Tuesday, with the continuation of Sunday`s warming
trend amongst dry conditions. Wednesday sees the bolstering of
return flow across TX and into NM with the setting up of the
classic spring dryline. This will help to support the development
of thunderstorms in eastern NM midweek through the remainder of
the workweek.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Winds have decreased across the area, though a few gusts between
25 and 30kt will persist through the overnight hours along and
east of the Central Mt Chain. Of particular concern is the
potential for mountain wave activity overnight to the lee of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Winds will increase again Friday
morning, with gusts between 25 and 40kt common Friday afternoon.
Localized areas of blowing dust and reduced visibility are
possible, but confidence is too low to insert into any TAF attm.
Late Friday afternoon and Friday evening, the next storm system
will be approaching the Four Corners region. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to spread across northwest NM Friday
evening and before continuing to spread south and east Friday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM TODAY AS WELL AS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...

Yesterday`s storm system brought more lightning than originally
expected across portions of the area. Several strikes were noted
around the Chuska Mtns and also over the northern Sandia Mountains
associated with dry lightning. Though weak ridging will be over the
area today, winds will be strong enough to result in another round
of critical fire weather conditions across all of eastern NM and
portions of central NM to include the Sandia and Manzano Mountains
today. Though winds will not be as strong as yesterday, gusts around
35-40 mph will be possible in these areas as RH values dip below
15%. Another storm system will approach the Four Corners this
evening, bringing more showers and thunderstorms to central and
western NM through Saturday and another round of windy conditions to
eastern NM Saturday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for the East Central Plains Saturday afternoon and early evening
where gusts up to 50 mph and sub-15% RH is expected. 1 to 3 hours of
critical fire weather conditions are also possible across the
Northeast Plains Saturday afternoon. Another weak cold front will
press from west to east Saturday which should increase RH values
enough elsewhere to limit the critical fire threat. Relatively quiet
conditions are expected Sunday, though westerly breezes will
persist. Thereafter, hot, dry and unstable conditions will return
for the Monday through Wednesday period. Chances for precip on
Wednesday across eastern NM have dwindled, but a backdoor front
should increase moisture across the plains Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Farmington......................  67  42  57  38 /  30  70  70  10
Dulce...........................  63  34  53  32 /  20  80  90  20
Cuba............................  63  33  52  33 /   5  60  90  30
Gallup..........................  64  36  52  30 /   5  60  70  20
El Morro........................  61  34  47  32 /   0  50  70  20
Grants..........................  66  33  52  31 /   0  30  60  20
Quemado.........................  65  34  51  33 /   0  30  40  10
Magdalena.......................  69  38  56  39 /   0   5  30  10
Datil...........................  63  34  51  34 /   0  20  30   5
Reserve.........................  67  33  57  30 /   0  30  20   5
Glenwood........................  71  41  60  41 /   0  20  20   0
Chama...........................  58  30  46  30 /  20  80  90  30
Los Alamos......................  63  39  51  39 /   5  50  80  30
Pecos...........................  65  34  54  34 /   0  20  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  60  34  48  35 /   5  60  60  30
Red River.......................  56  27  45  28 /  10  60  80  30
Angel Fire......................  58  28  46  26 /   5  40  60  20
Taos............................  65  32  53  30 /   0  40  60  20
Mora............................  64  32  54  33 /   0  20  40  10
Espanola........................  70  39  59  39 /   5  50  70  20
Santa Fe........................  65  37  53  37 /   5  40  60  20
Santa Fe Airport................  69  37  57  36 /   5  30  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  43  58  44 /   5  30  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  44  59  42 /   0  20  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  43  61  41 /   0  20  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  43  60  42 /   5  20  40  10
Belen...........................  76  43  64  41 /   0  10  30  10
Bernalillo......................  73  43  61  42 /   5  30  50  20
Bosque Farms....................  75  42  62  40 /   0  10  30  10
Corrales........................  73  43  61  41 /   5  20  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  75  41  63  40 /   0  10  30  10
Placitas........................  69  42  57  42 /   5  30  50  20
Rio Rancho......................  72  43  60  42 /   5  20  50  20
Socorro.........................  79  45  67  43 /   0   0  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  38  53  39 /   0  30  50  20
Tijeras.........................  67  40  55  39 /   0  20  50  20
Edgewood........................  67  38  56  37 /   0  20  40  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  38  59  34 /   0  10  30  10
Clines Corners..................  65  35  55  34 /   0   5  20  10
Mountainair.....................  68  38  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  67  37  59  36 /   0   5  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  71  46  63  42 /   0   0  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  64  40  56  38 /   0   0   5   5
Capulin.........................  70  36  61  34 /   0   0  30  10
Raton...........................  72  37  62  33 /   0   5  30  10
Springer........................  72  37  63  35 /   0   0  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  68  36  58  35 /   0   5  20   5
Clayton.........................  76  45  69  40 /   0   0  10   5
Roy.............................  73  42  63  39 /   0   0  10   0
Conchas.........................  79  46  71  43 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  74  43  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  47  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  79  48  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  79  49  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  78  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  86  51  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  74  47  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  71  45  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ104-106-123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ126.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...34