Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270536 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS OF 15 KT THOUGH OVER THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES AND AROUND CQC THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEE SIDE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE STATE. GUSTS NEAR
25 KT POSSIBLE AT CQC...CAO AND TCC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL OVER NEW MEXICO.
THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO LOSE STRENGTH...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE BREEZES AT THE SURFACE HAVE NOT BEEN AS
PRONOUNCED AS DAYS PAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOME OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
MODERATE BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. EXCELLENT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION THROUGH THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...ALTHOUGH
SURFACE SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT DIRECTION HAS CHANGED AND
SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH TO WHERE THIS LOOKS TO HAVE SUBSIDED
FOR THE MOST PART. MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AT H5 AND WARMER
H7 TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR TURKEY DAY...EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FLATTEN AS THE APEX SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE RISE IN ALMOST ALL ZONES...WITH READINGS ECLIPSING NORMAL
VALUES BY 5 TO 18 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. WARMING WILL BE
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE IN THE NORTHEAST AFTER TODAY`S WEAK SURFACE
FRONT THAT SAGGED INTO THE AREA...CONTRASTING WITH TOMORROW`S
LONGER DURATION DOWNSLOPE BREEZES DUE TO THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH HOLDING ITS
RESIDENCE. BREEZY TO BRIEFLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS AND SANTA ROSA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES...SOME 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR CLAYTON. THE RECORD HIGH FOR CLAYTON ON
FRIDAY IS 80 DEGREES AND THE FORECAST HIGH AS OF RIGHT NOW IS 79.

ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES ON SATURDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE
NEGLIGIBLE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH COULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BREEZES GOING IN THE EAST...ADDING THAT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF MUCH...BUT AT THE
SURFACE THE LEE SIDE CYCLONE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURES WITH AN ARRIVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN THE EAST DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF DOWNSLOPING. STILL DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASILY EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
STRONGER PUSH OF THIS FRONT WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
EUROPEAN STILL BEING SLIGHTLY QUICKER.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PACIFIC LOW OR TROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
FALLING AFTER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE EUROPEAN
AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PACIFIC SYSTEM TAKING A NEGATIVE
TILT BEFORE ARRIVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
MOVE THE SYSTEM FASTER...BUT OPENS AND WEAKENS THE FEATURE SO MUCH
BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL TO NEW MEXICO THAT BOTH WIND AND
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE LESS IN NEW MEXICO. THE EUROPEAN
DEFLECTS MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. HAVE DELAYED
THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST TO TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION. TEMPERATURES COOL A
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ARE ON HOLD
UNTIL TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN WITH MODERATELY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME GUSTY WINDS
PERSIST...THOUGH MAGNITUDES HAVE DECREASED. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALL LEVELS...AND TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT IN
THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS USHERED IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH A DOWNTREND
IN MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS...VENTILATION HAS DECREASED
AS WELL...WITH POOR VALUES MOST LOCATIONS.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY SUBSIDING AIR...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. VENTILATION MAY REACH FAIR VALUES THERE...WITH
POOR VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AN INCREASED GRADIENT IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENED LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS.
RH DECREASES WITH AREAS OF MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS...SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST VENTILATION INCREASES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH BETTER IMPROVEMENT AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VALUES BY SATURDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BY SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. HEIGHTS LOWER
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND MORE SO ON
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK TO
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE EURO HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH FEW IMPACTS FOR NEW MEXICO.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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