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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181205 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR FRONT...ENHANCED BY LINGERING CONVECTION...WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OR AROUND 17Z. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY AROUND
15Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS OF
BKN-OVC015-020 AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...NOT ONLY ALONG
THE FAVORED EAST SLOPES BUT ALSO IN NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS
INCLUDING KSAF...KLAM AND KAXX. THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR SOME MID TO
LATE MORNING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT FAVORING THE
AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STORMS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS. ANOTHER GAP WIND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AFTER 03Z
TO 06Z WITH LOW CLOUDS EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS EASTERN
PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHED BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. EASTERLY GAP WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WERE COMMON...MAINLY BELOW CANYONS.
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SURGED IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UP
TO 52 AT KABQ AND 50 AT KSAF BY 09Z. CONVECTION FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SANDIAS AND MANZANOS REGENERATED
AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT 09Z...AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR ROY...SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR PORTALES...WAS MOVING ESE AND PROVIDING WETTING RAINS FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TODAY...
WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL. A
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ALONG/EAST OF THE THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RANGE FROM 50 TO 60.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE SHOWING BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATER
TODAY...FAVORING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL FORECAST 0-1KM
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING IN EXCESS OF 200
M^2/S^2...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SUPERCELLS. LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE HEATING (OR LACK
THEREOF) ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING OF
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BY CONTRAST...WILL BE VERY DRY AND HOT. WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN ADDED LOW LAYER MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW SURGE... BUT MOISTURE MAY GET SCOURED BY THE
WESTERLIES PRIOR TO MAX HEATING.

WINDS ALOFT TO BACK TO THE SW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY
AIR PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT OVER THE MEXICAN BAJA
AND DESERT SW POISED TO SURGE EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH WARM/DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT OVERTAKES
MUCH OF NM (SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW).

THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF WA/OR WILL TRANSITION INLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TX WITH A
WSW TO ENE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WORK
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO OVER CO/NM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A
DOWNTREND IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOISTURE SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH.

11

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES ON THURSDAY...

GOOD WESTERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH REASONABLY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT.
HOWEVER...STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE
EARLY MORNING RH RECOVERIES ARE POOR...IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EAST WITH AREAS OF
WETTING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES.
COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE THE EASTERLY PUSH...LITTLE
CHANGE CENTRAL AND WEST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WEST AND BELOW 15 PERCENT CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH HAINES OF 6 WESTERN ZONES WITH AN AREA OF SUPER HAINES LIKELY
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN HIGHLANDS. IN
CONTRAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG...ACROSS THE EAST.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER NEW MEXICO. MIXING HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ALL LOCATIONS
AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP ALL ZONES BY MID DAY.  THE
AREA OF SINGLE DIGIT RH INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...WITH HAINES VALUES OF 6 AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SUPER
HAINES.  THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST WHERE RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. FOCUS WILL BE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. LEFT THE WATCH IN PLACE AND COORDINATED CRITICAL AREA
WITH SPC.

UPPER LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO...BUT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGIT RH WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NEED TO WATCH WIND
SPEEDS...BUT CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
ARE SLIGHT...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WEST COULD SUPPORT DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

BETTER...THOUGH LIMITED...CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS SOME INCREASED
MOIST FLOW OVER THE STATE.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$