Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201105 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
505 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread today
through early Monday as generous monsoon moisture moves over New
Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding will
favor central and eastern New Mexico. A slight decrease in storm
coverage is expected Monday afternoon and Monday night. A frontal
boundary on Tuesday may lead to another surge in storm activity by
Tuesday night. A wet pattern persists for mid to late week as an
upper disturbance passes over the state. Western New Mexico may be
drier next weekend but the east will continue to be affected by
passing disturbances and frontal boundaries. High temperatures this
week will remain below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Model differences make placement of highest pops and rainfall
amounts somewhat low confidence for the next 24 to 36 hours. Heavy
rain may favor the southwest and along the Contdvd initially before
shifting to the central mountain chain and eastern plains later this
afternoon and tonight. GFS not as wet as the NAM12 with forecast
rainfall amounts and have some doubts about that and areal coverage
contained in QPF grids. Think QPF might be underdone over the
eastern plains where there is a swath of higher rainfall forecast
but the 06Z NAM12 is trickling in with a much different areal
coverage pattern. Otherwise, the far northwest looks to have the
least chance for recording some rain the next 24-48 hrs.

After the upper low passes Monday, the remainder of the day should
be a little less active, as well as Tuesday, at least initially
before a front sparks more activity Tuesday night central and east.
An upper high circulation will be centered somewhere close to El
Paso or the Bootheel midweek, before being suppressed by an ejecting
weak upper trough. This results in another surge of convective
activity Wednesday night into Friday before the high center regroups
over the Great Basin Saturday/Sunday. The west should see fewer
showers and storms, while the east will stay active. High
temperatures this week will remain near to below while lows will be
near to above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep layered sub-tropical moisture will continue to stream northward
today between a developing cut-off low along the southern CA coast
and resident upper high over southeast TX.  The more important
player in the near-term will be a mid-level wave/soon-to-be closed
low that was centered about 100 miles south of Douglas, AZ. Nice
looking inflection point becoming better defined per latest mid-
level water vapor channel imagery. Models generally track this
feature NNE to central or west-central NM by early evening/03Z with
the GFS farthest west(south of GUP) while the ECMWF is farthest east
(west of ABQ). Thereafter, model solutions diverge even more on the
timing/placement of this feature with the GFS still farther west and
slower than either the ECMWF or NAM that have the remnant
circulation exiting the northeast corner of NM Monday midday or
early afternoon.

Numerous organized, slow-moving storm clusters are likely along and
east of the above mentioned track where the deepest sub-tropical
moisture will get drawn northward and contribute to locally heavy
rainfall. A more westward track would strongly favor the Rio Grande
Valley, but either way areas east of the Divide to the east slopes
of the central mountain chain look primed for fairly widespread
footprints of 0.50" to 1" rainfall totals next 24-36 hours with
locally higher amounts expected.  This will impact areas that have
been hard hit since 1 August and localized flash flooding will be a
concern.  Active showers and thunderstorms,  much more than this
past night, will continue Sunday night into early Monday.

Ample moisture looks to remain in place Monday and Tuesday for
decent rounds of showers and thunderstorms although high pressure
aloft should recenter more over south-central and southwest NM
during this period. Seems the GFS is reverting to its tendency to
dry things out too quickly for Tuesday particularly with 500mb
heights building over the area.  Next backdoor cold front slated to
push into northeast NM Tuesday evening before sagging west and south
through early Wednesday. This should further bolster moisture
profiles going into mid-week beneath an upper high that should
remain centered over southwest NM.  Meanwhile, the southern CA low
should finally open up late week and provide a window of enhanced
convection Thu/Thu PM and possibly Fri before a drying trend
commences next weekend.  KJ

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An active monsoon burst period can be expected for at
least the next 24 hours and just beyond with aviation wx impacts
becoming widespread especially after midday Sunday. For the
remainder of the overnight into Sunday AM, latest high resolution
modeling and radar/satellite observational trends suggest most of
the SHRA/TSRA activity remaining focused near/south of a Quemado to
Socorro to Ruidoso to Roswell line. Meanwhile, a tropical wave
embedded within the strengthening monsoon plume will very slowly
drift northward into central areas of the state later Sunday. This
will promote widespread SHRA/TSRA development with locally heavy
rainfall accompanied by rapid MVFR/IFR incursions and isolated
instances of potentially strong downburst winds and bursts of small
hail. Areas east of the Divide to the east slopes of the central
mountain chain will be favored Sunday early to mid- afternoon before
a general eastward expansion commences during the evening. Less
coverage for the far west to include KGUP and KFMN.
TSRA impacts for ABQ area terminals likely between 20Z and 01Z. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  60  87  60 /  20  30  20  10
Dulce...........................  86  49  81  49 /  40  50  40  30
Cuba............................  81  52  78  53 /  60  50  40  30
Gallup..........................  84  53  82  52 /  30  30  20  10
El Morro........................  77  49  79  49 /  50  40  20  20
Grants..........................  80  50  82  52 /  40  40  20  20
Quemado.........................  75  51  83  53 /  50  40  20  20
Glenwood........................  82  58  85  62 /  60  40  20  30
Chama...........................  78  46  75  48 /  60  60  50  40
Los Alamos......................  77  54  77  56 /  50  60  40  40
Pecos...........................  76  53  76  55 /  70  90  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  77  47  76  49 /  60  70  40  50
Red River.......................  71  45  70  45 /  70  70  50  50
Angel Fire......................  72  46  71  46 /  60  80  50  40
Taos............................  79  49  79  51 /  50  60  40  40
Mora............................  73  50  74  51 /  50  80  50  40
Espanola........................  82  52  81  54 /  50  60  30  30
Santa Fe........................  78  52  77  56 /  70  80  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  81  55  80  57 /  50  70  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  57  80  61 /  60  70  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  60  83  64 /  50  70  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  57  84  59 /  50  60  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  57  84  60 /  50  50  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  84  59  86  61 /  50  70  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  81  59  85  62 /  50  50  30  20
Socorro.........................  81  60  83  62 /  60  70  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  54  79  57 /  70  80  30  30
Tijeras.........................  77  56  81  58 /  70  80  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  55  79  55 /  60  80  30  30
Clines Corners..................  74  54  76  56 /  60  80  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  77  56  79  58 /  70  80  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  77  58  80  60 /  70  80  60  30
Ruidoso.........................  72  55  73  56 /  80 100  80  30
Capulin.........................  81  54  77  54 /  20  50  30  20
Raton...........................  84  54  80  55 /  30  40  30  30
Springer........................  83  54  79  55 /  30  50  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  78  53  76  53 /  50  80  50  30
Clayton.........................  87  61  79  61 /  20  50  40  20
Roy.............................  84  57  78  57 /  30  70  50  30
Conchas.........................  85  60  82  61 /  30  70  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  86  61  83  62 /  40  80  60  20
Tucumcari.......................  93  64  86  66 /  30  70  60  20
Clovis..........................  86  64  84  64 /  20  50  40  20
Portales........................  87  65  85  65 /  20  50  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  88  63  84  65 /  30  80  60  20
Roswell.........................  90  66  88  68 /  30  70  60  30
Picacho.........................  81  61  81  61 /  60  90  70  30
Elk.............................  75  59  77  59 /  60  90  80  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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