Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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978 FXUS65 KABQ 300517 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1117 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The recent warming trend will continue through mid week with high temperatures peaking around 3 to 13 degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages on Wednesday. Southwest winds will also become breezy to windy on Wednesday with very low humidities and widespread fire weather concerns east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will cool closer to 30-year averages as winds shift out of the northwest and remain breezy on Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast plains near the Colorado border both Thursday and Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread to the area along and east of the central mountain chain on Saturday, then dryline thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the east this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Fair weather reigns supreme this evening, tonight and Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will range from the 30s in the higher elevations and low-lying high altitude valley locations, with 40s in the mid-elevations and across the eastern plains. A few lower spots will dip to near 50F, Roswell being one. Quasi-zonal flow aloft remains Tuesday, strengthening a tad. Breezy westerlies gusting 15 to 25 mph will be aided be a modest 998mb MLSP surface low along the NM/CO border east of Raton Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures climb 5F to 10F above normal into the 60s in the mountains, 70s in the middle elevations, and 80s in the valleys. Roswell will again be the hot spot with a forecast high of 93F. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The warming trend will continue Wednesday, and breezy to windy conditions will develop with fire weather concerns as an upper level trough crossing the northern and central Rockies strengthens the flow aloft over NM. The strongest winds on Wednesday afternoon may reach 45 mph across northeast areas, where a strong lee trough will develop south of a ~989 mb surface low in southeast CO. The upper trough is forecast to drive a gusty Pacific cold front southeastward through the forecast area on Thursday, then a backdoor cold front southward through the eastern plains Thursday afternoon and night. Models now indicate the backdoor cold front may be deep enough to seep into the central valley with a light east wind below canyons late Thursday night into early Friday morning. After high temperatures around 3-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages across the forecast area on Wednesday, readings will fall around 3-13 degrees with continued breezy conditions on Thursday. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the CO border Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. An upper level trough crossing the northwest US will draw a moist, southeasterly, low-level, return flow into the forecast area Friday night and Saturday. This should set the stage for scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and night, then some dryline thunderstorms on the eastern plains Sunday. At this time an upper level low pressure system on the west coast is forecast to move inland a little too slowly to produce enough wind shear over NM for much in the way of severe weather this weekend. There may be a few strong to severe storms, but a severe weather outbreak seems unlikely. Some cells over central areas on Saturday afternoon will be capable of dry microbursts with erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph. High temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend reaching around 3-11 degrees above 30-year averages on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period under moderate westerly flow. Gusty westerly winds will develop Tuesday afternoon, with frequent gusts to between 25-30kts at KLVS and KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE... Dry and relatively warm weather today continues Tuesday with a slight uptick in westerly to southwesterly wind speeds. Winds increase further Wednesday with peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph focusing through the northeastern highlands and plains in the afternoon. Windy conditions combined with above normal warmth, minimum humidity falling below 10 percent, and Haines 6 will allow for widespread critical fire weather conditions across the eastern highlands and plains zones Wednesday afternoon. The Fire Weather Watch already issued for this area Wednesday will be left unchanged. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will extend into the Rio Grande Valley as well, but wind speeds and/or ERCs are the current limiting factor Wednesday afternoon. A potential expansion of fire highlights into the Upper and Middle Rio Grande Valley is still possible for Wednesday. Winds turn northerly to northwesterly most areas with a dip in temperatures Thursday. Northeasterly winds and a sharper cool down are forecast behind a cold front backing into northeastern and east- central NM Thursday. This frontal boundary will also bring a nice influx of low-level moisture and better humidity. The front is expected to push to the east slopes of the central mountain chain by Friday morning, with winds behind it veering out of the southeast. Chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity increases across eastern NM late Friday and into the weekend as return flow brings low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in eastern NM. Areas along and we && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 32 71 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 38 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 33 74 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 71 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 34 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 45 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 40 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 78 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 45 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 33 66 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 46 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 73 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 35 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 30 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 34 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 38 71 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 40 79 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 77 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 42 82 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 39 83 40 85 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 38 82 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 38 83 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 48 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 44 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 41 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 77 36 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 42 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 43 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 37 79 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 38 80 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 41 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 83 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 47 88 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 45 85 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 90 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 50 86 50 89 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 48 88 49 91 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 46 88 47 89 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 52 93 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 46 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...11