Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 051735
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$

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