Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 160536 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS ALOFT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIBBON OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS. RUC AND NAM BOTH INDICATING THESE
STRONG NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. LEFT OUT MENTION
OF OVERNIGHT FOG OUTSIDE THE MORENO VALLEY GIVEN THAT NAMBUFR DATA
SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM THIS EVENING. LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE NE PLAINS AS
A RESULT. A BRIEF SPURT OF LIGHT EAST WINDS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.

NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERHEAD RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF NM LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING FOR TUESDAY BUT PLENTIFUL HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE WARMING IN CHECK.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUB-TROPICAL JET
STREAM SPEED MAXIMA MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
ABOVE ABOUT 6500FT OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE.
GFS AND NAM STILL AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER AS TO WHEN TO BRING
THE MAIN TROUGH./CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE STATE AND WHEN BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
GIVEN THE PWAT AMOUNT AVAILABLE. FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT FOR NOW HAVE ADVISORY SNOW
AMOUNTS ABOVE ABOUT 7000FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE
GRIDS.

GFS STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST NIGHT BUT NOW ALL GLOBAL MODELS
TRENDING AWAY FROM A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY FAST (185-190KT) PACIFIC JET
STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE LEADING TO LARGE RUN TO RUN
MODEL DIFFERENCES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY
CONTINUES WITH SUCH BIG RUN TO RUN SWINGS. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE BUT STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION TODAY...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN RESPOND TO A TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH VENT RATES WILL TREND
UP TO FAIR/GOOD MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY...POCKETS OF POOR WILL STILL
REMAIN IN SOME VALLEYS.

ANOTHER WETTING EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A MESSY
TROUGH PASSAGE SCENARIO WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACTING THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY`S
12Z RUNS. THE 18Z NAM SHOWS A WETTER SCENARIO WITH A MORE COHERENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING EVENT IS THERE...BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCY. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR A LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WETTING
EVENT HAS INCREASED GIVEN THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...
WHICH LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 00Z RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
WHICH IS NOW SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. REGARDLESS...MODERATE
TO HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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