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000
FXUS65 KABQ 132127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING/DRYING TREND CONTINUES UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AN AVERAGE
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2 PM. THE CONVECTIVE TREND
CONTINUES DOWNWARD BECAUSE OF DECREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. AS OF 2PM...ONLY A FEW
VERY LIMITED SHOWERS (NO LIGHTNING) OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOWS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE DRYING TREND WILL TEMPORARILY REVERSE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO PULLS NORTHEAST AND IS STRETCHED OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BACK-OUT AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL FALL. 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW PWATS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. OF COURSE THE MODELS OVERCOOKED THE PWATS LAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SO THOSE VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ALL OF THE DRY AIR IN OUR REGION SHOWING RATHER OBVIOUSLY IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT SAID...EVEN IF THE
MODELS ARE TOO HIGH...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIFTED INDICES
MODELED BETWEEN -1 AND -3C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
VERY DRY. LOCATIONS BELOW 9000 FEET WILL LIKELY RECEIVE VERY
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND NO WETTING RAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
FOLLOWS BEHIND IT...PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP ACROSS THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ACTUALLY TREND DOWN NORTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT MAY SEE 90 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON...WHICH WOULD
BE TWO WEEKS EARLIER THAN AVERAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY DRY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
RECYCLING...BUT FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MORE WETTING-
TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

MOISTURE GETS SCOURED ON THURSDAY WITH WESTERLIES INCREASING OVER
THE STATE. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY ON AVERAGE FOR OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS. 100 DEGREES IS FORECAST IN ROSWELL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE SEVERAL WEEKS AHEAD OF
AVERAGE. SPOTTY NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...
ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING.
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND OUR FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ABOUND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(SEE BELOW) WITH THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON WHEN THE
WESTERLIES WILL EASE A BIT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ABUNDANT THIS WEEK...

INITIALLY MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS WITH A FAIR BIT OF LIGHTNING
DEVELOPING TUESDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA PUSHING EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE SOME LAL 6 DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH SMALL
AREAS. THEN TRANSITIONING TO A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
STARTING UP WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NUMBER OF SINGLE DIGIT HOUR HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE AS A RESULT. MOST LIKELY PEAKING ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FRIDAY TOO.

WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.
SOME BREEZES CAPTURED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. STRONGER
GUSTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ON
THAT DAY. MODELS ARE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. BUMPED
UP SPEEDS SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTIER NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. MORE OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GETTING SOME ISOLATED
CRITICAL OR RED FLAG AREAS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE ABQ METRO AREA.

WIND FLOW CHANGES TO MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. SEEING SOME BREEZES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH RED FLAG SPEEDS LOOK TO BE LIMITED AND MAINLY
FOCUSED NEAR LAS VEGAS. THE FLOW CERTAINLY STRENGTHENS MORE ON
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DRAWS NEARER TO THE STATE. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND A WATCH WILL BE VERY
POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUSED RIGHT NOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHUSKAS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PEAKING
SATURDAY WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ADJUSTED
WIND SPEEDS UP FOR SATURDAY WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST BUT TIMING
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE
SPEEDS AND OVERALL CRITICAL NATURE TO THE EVENT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS TIME BUT
NEED A FEW MORE RUNS TO BUMP IT UP TO HIGH.

MIXING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE ROBUST DURING MOST OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEEING A SMALL
AREA OF SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP WITHIN THE MANZANO MTNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH THAT TREND. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO
LOWER SOME...PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS...ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAINES OF 5 AND 6 DEPICTED FRIDAY AND THEN LOWER TO MORE
OF A 5 REGIME SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME SIXES SHOWING UP ACROSS THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES FAVORING
THE EAST.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO SETS UP A LIGHTNING EVENT FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING/INCREASED WINDS WHICH COULD MAKE FOR INCREASED FIRE
BUSINESS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DOWN DAY...CONVECTION OR SH/TS WISE COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS.
STILL EXPECTING A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STEERING FLOW FOR THE CELLS WILL BE RATHER
SLOW AND GENERALLY TO THE WEST BUT PRETTY CONVOLUTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOOO....MAKES IT TOUGHER TO
FORECAST AS FAR AS TERMINAL IMPACTS. AS OF RIGHT NOW...KEEPING
WITH THE VCSH TREND AT BOTH SAF AND GUP WHERE SH IMPACT MOST
LIKELY. VIS SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SOME CUMULUS BUILDUP SO DID
ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE SOONER. DIMINISHING ACTIVITY AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN. WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN EFFECT AROUND THE CELLS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  51  87  52  88 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  82  43  82 /   0  20   0  10
CUBA............................  46  83  45  84 /   0  20   5   5
GALLUP..........................  41  82  44  83 /   5  10   0   0
EL MORRO........................  37  78  38  80 /   5  20   5   5
GRANTS..........................  44  82  46  85 /   5  10   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  44  79  47  83 /   5  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  39  85  41  88 /   0  10   5   0
CHAMA...........................  41  74  43  75 /  10  40  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  77  53  80 /   0  10  10  10
PECOS...........................  50  77  52  78 /   0  10  10  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  39  79  44  79 /  10  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  37  70  43  69 /  20  40  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  72  33  70 /  10  30  10  30
TAOS............................  38  79  41  80 /   0  20  10  20
MORA............................  46  74  47  74 /   0  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  48  82  50  84 /   0  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  51  77  53  80 /   0  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  47  81  50  84 /   0  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  83  58  87 /   0  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  84  59  89 /   0  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  53  86  55  91 /   0  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  85  58  89 /   0  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  53  87  58  91 /   0  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  54  85  58  88 /   0  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  54  88  59  93 /   0  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  49  79  53  83 /   5  10  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  52  82  54  86 /   5  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  80  43  83 /   0  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  47  79  49  82 /   0  10  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  49  79  53  84 /   5  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  80  54  87 /   5  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  46  73  52  79 /   5  20  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  47  82  49  75 /   0  20  20  30
RATON...........................  44  84  48  78 /   0  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  45  84  48  79 /   0  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  79  48  78 /   0  10  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  53  88  55  81 /   0   5  10  10
ROY.............................  50  84  52  79 /   0  10  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  52  89  53  86 /   0   0  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  52  87  55  86 /   0   0  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  56  90  57  89 /   0   0  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  50  85  53  89 /   0   5  10   5
PORTALES........................  52  86  54  91 /   0   5  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  87  56  90 /   0   5  10   0
ROSWELL.........................  52  87  57  96 /   0   5  10   0
PICACHO.........................  49  84  57  89 /   5  10  10  10
ELK.............................  47  79  53  86 /   5  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11