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000
FXUS65 KABQ 140526 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AN NEAR THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT-LIVED IFR
VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST...OR SIMPLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED ARE KABQ...KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013...
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY OVER THE STATE SO FAR. STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS HAVE IN SOME PART BEEN A LITTLE WETTER THAN EXPECTED
EARLIER...BUT IN GENERAL...DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN THE RULE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS...THUS SOME ERRATIC
GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. DRY
POCKET OF AIR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN MEXICO HAS
DEFINITELY PUT THE KIBOSH ON STORMS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THUS FAR. THOUGH...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS WHERE
PERCENT OF NORMAL PWATS ARE CLIMBING ABOVE 150 PERCENT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SCOOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TEXAS. AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EXPECT STORMS TO ERUPT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. MOISTURE MAY SEEP FARTHER WEST...THUS EXPECT MORE OF
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE COLLIDING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY HELP WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE RATHER SLOW.

MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS QUICK TO DRY IT OUT SATURDAY NOW...THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE. WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS OF THE DRIER VARIETY. LOOKS LIKE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MORESO ON SUNDAY NOW...BUT THERE
WILL REMAIN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DRY STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND
WETTER ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE EAST. IN GENERAL...STORM COVERAGE
ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST
THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACT TO MOISTEN UP THE EAST AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.  IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS
SOONER...THEN THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DRY STORMS ACROSS
THE WEST.  TUESDAY MAY REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EAST WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST...UNLESS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONT PUSHES FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS
OF NUMEROUS CELL COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL FAVOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES...WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CELLS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL LIKELY
BE DRY ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA SHOULD SHIFT AS FAR
EAST AS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS
NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE
READINGS TO FALL A FEW TO 7 DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING IN
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SOME SPOTTY HAINES 6 READINGS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A BRIEF DOWNWARD
TREND IN HUMIDITIES AND A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
PLAINS. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN US GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY...SENDING
A MODERATELY MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NM FROM THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INVIGORATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MAINLY MONDAY...BUT
ALSO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE RECYCLES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE NOT
DEPICTING THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN VERY STRONGLY...WITH ONLY A LIGHT EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS
OPENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WEST TX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NM WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS HAPPENS CAUSING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TUESDAY AND AS FAR EAST AS THE NE HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB A
FEW TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

44

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY ISOLD TS TODAY WILL TRACK TO THE N OR NE. THIS WILL MAKE
KSAF FAVORED FOR TS ON STATION. DRIER AIR W OF THE CONTDVD WILL
SPACE STORMS MORE SPARSELY WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF TS AT KGUP
AND KFMN. A MIX OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TODAY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY MICROBURSTS
FARTHER W. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 45 KT NEAR STORMS...AND
BLOWING DUST COULD DROP VISIBILITY LOCALLY BELOW A MILE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. MOST TS WILL BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RISING
HUMIDITIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND AN EASTERLY WAVE TRAVELING
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...WILL CAUSE TS TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY WITH SCT TO ISOLD CELLS FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTDVD DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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