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FXUS65 KABQ 122114
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  TEMPS ARE NOT AS QUICK TO RISE
TODAY THANKS TO A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE BUBBLING OF CU EXTENDING FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS SOUTHWARD TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREA FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS...VIRGA AND/OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE NAM WERE SHOWING A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP ONTO THE RATON RIDGE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  RECORD
HEAT FOR THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERTED-V SIGNATURES UP TO ROUGHLY 500 MB
SUGGESTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER EAST...A POCKET
OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AND T-STORM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...SOME CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT.

THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER SE NM AND WEST TEXAS...SELY
FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE BACK TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND PERHAPS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN THE ADDED MOISTURE..PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOLING AT
MID LEVELS...AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN THE
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE LOW...AND WSW FLOW AT
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE NW
TROUGH...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST...WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. HOWEVER...A
CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ON THE
FRINGES OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS...WITH THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS WEST TEXAS. THEN MORE
WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY...AND
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN PLUMMETS. TEMPS WILL ALSO JUMP BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING TO THE
EAST. AFTER WHICH...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER TEXAS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE FOLLOWING A MORE NELY TRAJECTORY BY
WEEK/S END.  THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
END TO OUR RECORD-SETTING HEAT AS WELL AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER STORMS
IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

THERE WILL STILL BE A PRONOUNCED  WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT THE SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
PRIMARY HIGH CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT THAT COMBINED
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MID-LEVELS DOWN WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH A
TREND TOWARD ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  THE OTHER CONCERN ON THURSDAY
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER.  DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HERE BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN THE GFS BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NAM THAT IS BY FAR THE DRIEST.  THE END RESULT
COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 103-- ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING GIVEN LIMITED IMPACT.

HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS BRUTAL AS THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS BUT STILL FAIR TO POOR FOR WESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE TRENDING
UPWARD WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CONFINED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE DIVIDE.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE PASSING OVER OR VERY
NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT....THOUGH MODELS DIFFER
WHEN IT MAKES ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TRENDED DEW POINTS UPWARD
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AND COULD SEE DECENT WETTING
RAIN POTENTIAL AT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EC/SE PLAINS NEARER
THE LOW/S CORE. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE AMONG THE
MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES WITH DRIER AIR BECOMING PREDOMINATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU. MODERATE
SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE SMOKE IMPACTS
TO KSAF LATER TONIGHT WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
-SHRA AND -TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 04Z.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  97  59  93 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  42  89  41  87 /   0  10  10  10
CUBA............................  53  90  50  88 /   5  20  10  10
GALLUP..........................  49  92  50  89 /   0   5  10   5
EL MORRO........................  47  86  44  84 /   0  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  48  92  51  89 /   0  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  56  89  55  86 /   5  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  53  96  50  93 /   0   0  10  10
CHAMA...........................  44  84  46  82 /   5  20  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  66  88  65  83 /   5  10  10  20
PECOS...........................  64  85  60  81 /  10  10  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  83  54  80 /   5  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  50  77  46  74 /  10  20  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  80  38  77 /  10  10  10  30
TAOS............................  49  88  51  87 /   5  10  10  20
MORA............................  58  83  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  60  92  59  89 /   5   5  10  10
SANTA FE........................  63  90  59  84 /   5   5  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  94  60  89 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  95  68  90 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  97  69  92 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  98  67  93 /   5   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  98  66  93 /   5   5  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  98  65  94 /   0   5  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  98  66  94 /   5   5  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  66 101  65  96 /   0   5  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  93  59  88 /   5  10  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  64  94  62  90 /   5   5  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  90  57  85 /  10   5  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  90  58  85 /  10   5  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  64  91  61  86 /  10  10  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  93  60  88 /   5   5  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  59  83  56  77 /  10  10  20  40
CAPULIN.........................  57  91  58  83 /  10   5   5  20
RATON...........................  57  91  56  88 /  10   5  10  20
SPRINGER........................  56  91  56  87 /  10   5  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  88  56  83 /  10   5  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  68  97  67  92 /   5   0   5   5
ROY.............................  63  91  62  86 /   5   5  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  69  94  67  90 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  66  93  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  70 100  70  95 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  65  93  64  88 /   0   0   5  10
PORTALES........................  66  94  66  88 /   0   0   5  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  94  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  95  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
PICACHO.........................  62  89  61  84 /   5   5  10  20
ELK.............................  60  84  58  79 /   5   5  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104.

&&

$$

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