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000
FXUS65 KABQ 150541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NM. BAGGY TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. KEEPING CLOUD DECK AOA BKN/OVC100
FROM ARIZONA LINE TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU 18Z WED NOON. CLOUD
COVERAGE SHIFTING EAST AS WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NM THROUGH 00Z WED AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AS SURFACE WINDS
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 06Z LATE WED NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN ELONGATING UPPER LOW
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE POLAR JET REMAINS
DISPLACED TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A SECOND WEAKER UPPER
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS TRYING TO CLOSE THE GAP BETWEEN NEW MEXICO.
THE FORMER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY SPREADING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM AS IT ELONGATES...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL REVEALING INVERTED-V
PROFILES WITH A PARCHED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH CLOUD/STORM BASES. SURFACE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE EASILY 40 TO 50 DEGREES F...AND THIS WILL HEIGHTEN
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL FROM ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL STAND THE
BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER DARK.
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DYING CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND SOME
MODERATE RIDGE TOP BREEZES WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD...MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST...REFOCUSING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ZONES OF NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH VALUES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW...DEEP MIXING...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW ALLOW.

CONTINUED DRYING WILL TRANSPIRE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BY
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP MIXING WILL CARRY TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS EVEN WINDY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

INTO FRIDAY...A TRANSITION TO THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETELY TAKEN HOLD FROM THAT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE
POLAR JET WILL TAKE A DIVE SOUTHWARD...CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STEADILY FEEDING INTO
NM. THE WELL-MIXED WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL STAY INTACT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY...TURNING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL
LARGELY BYPASS NM TO THE NORTH...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

52

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RESIDES AT THE MID LEVELS WITH RATHER DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. A SMALL PORTION OF THE SANGRES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LAL
6 THROUGH THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A SCATTERED MIX OF WET AND DRY
CELLS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ENTER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY IN THE DAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED EASTWARD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY THEREAFTER
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVE EAST.

DRY WEATHER WITH NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FLAT RIDGING ALOFT.

EARLY THIS WEEK IT APPEARED THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MIGHT BE REACHED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF
ANTICIPATED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN SLOWS DOWN. THIS TROUGH  WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY MAY
GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
EASTERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL COME UP A FEW
PERCENT...THEY WILL STILL REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST TO AS MUCH
AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CURRENT LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE THE STRONG
TROUGH EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER MONDAY IN THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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