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000
FXUS65 KABQ 121143
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET WEATHER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CROP
OF -SHRA AND -TSRA AGAIN THIS AFTN...FEWER IN NUMBER AND MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAN WAS THE CASE SATURDAY PM.
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AND BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS A RESIDENT OF NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF IT ACROSS NM TODAY AND MORESO
MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ITS DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES JUMP UPWARD. REINSERTED THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND -1 OR -2...BUT ONLY EXPECT A FEW STRIKES AT BEST.  MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. AS IT
DOES SO...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/EAST PLAINS...BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE WEST...SOME OR MOST OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
BE OF THE DRY VARIETY.

BACK DOOR FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT NO
MAJOR COOL DOWNS EXPECTED LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL FRONTS HAVE RESULTED
IN. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FRIDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.  GFS IS QUICKER AND DEEPER...RESULTING IN A
WINDY SATURDAY. EITHER SOLUTION...HOWEVER...IS TRENDING DRIER FOR
THE WEEKEND. 34

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING WIND AND LOWER RH VALUES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN VERY SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RECYCLE TODAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL TREND
WILL BE LESS WETTING RAIN EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TOP
OF NEW MEXICO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND JUST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
TODAY AND FAIR TO GOOD MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THE
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE REASONABLY HIGH. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE TEENS THEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY.
RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR.

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...CLOSED LOW THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF
THIS FEATURE BRINGING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE
WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST WHILE HAINES VALUES OF 5 AND 6
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS. MIN RH VALUES WILL CREEP
UP A FEW PERCENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WILL SCOUR OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NM BUT A BACK DOOR FRONT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM BY WEDNESDAY...
PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER IN THE WEST BUT BE HIGHER
IN THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DAYTIME RH VALUES. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH LOW ENOUGH RH VALUES FOR SOME CONCERN OF SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WINDS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLING. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS COULD SEE
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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